Ripple (XRP) Rejected at Critical Resistance: Breakdown Risk Increases

Key Takeaways

• Bearish impulse unfolding as part of (C) of Y wave.
• The descending wedge still contains a broader correction structure.
• The price is nearing oversold, so signaling short-term relief is possible.
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XRP is navigating a prolonged correction following its explosive five-wave advance toward the $3.38 mark.

The recent price structure shows contraction within a broad descending wedge, with the current leg pointing toward the final stages of a WXY correction.

Price action remains within a high-volatility zone, testing key Fibonacci and structural levels.

XRP Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart reveals that XRP is locked within a large descending wedge following its January high of $3.38.

The asset has traced a corrective WXY pattern, with the current leg (Wave Y) likely unfolding.

On March 11, it fell to the significant horizontal support around $2, after which it started to recover, reaching a high of $2.58 on March 19.

It got rejected at the descending resistance, causing a downward impulse and losing 11%.

The price is below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $2.22 and is still downward.

This area has repeatedly acted as a pivot, but the current breakdown suggests a downtrend continuation, with no bullish divergence evident yet on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

RSI is nearing the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart, but no signs of reversal are confirmed yet.

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The broader structure implies that this may be the final bearish leg before a potential macro pivot—possibly near the 0.5 or 0.618 retracements at $1.93 and $1.59, respectively.

XRP Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, XRP’s internal wave count within the ongoing Wave (C) suggests developing a clear five-wave impulsive structure.

Subwaves i and ii are already in place, and subwave iii appears to be extending lower as bearish momentum accelerates beneath $2.23.

The wedge breakdown reinforces this count, with wave iv likely to offer only a temporary bounce before wave v completes the sequence.

If this Elliott structure holds, the final wave v could drive XRP toward $1.95 (0.5 Fib), where strong historical demand and key retracement confluence meet.

Deeper capitulation could extend toward the 0.618 level near $1.59, marking the bottom of the entire WXY corrective sequence.

RSI on the 1-hour chart is currently oversold, which may prompt a brief relief rally toward $2.23–$2.30.

However, unless the rice reclaims the descending trendline and confirms above $2.58 (local resistance and 0.236 Fib), the bearish structure remains intact.

The critical decision zone lies between $1.93 and $1.59. A strong bounce here would complete the triple corrective sequence and potentially launch a new bullish cycle.

Until then, the downside remains the dominant risk.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $2.23 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Secondary Resistance: $2.577 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
• Major Resistance: $2.698 (top of last corrective wave (b)).
• Immediate Support: $1.95 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $1.59 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $1.10 (0.786 retracement – last resort support).
• Short-Term Target for Wave (C)v: $1.93 to $1.59 zone.
• Invalidation Zone: Break above $2.58 negates bearish impulse scenario.