Hedera (HBAR) Eyes Recovery After 40% Drop — Confirmation Still Uncertain

Key Takeaways

• HBAR has formed a falling wedge, but the MACD remains negative, signaling bearish momentum.
• A breakout above the wedge could push HBAR’s price toward $0.38, which an analyst agrees with.
• Failure to break above $0.20 and the wedge resistance could decrease HBAR’s price to $0.12.
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Contrary to what some market participants expected, Hedera (HBAR) has failed to put up an impressive price action for most of the year. As of this writing, HBAR’s price hovers around $0.16.

This value represents a 40% decline from one month ago. However, despite the decline, HBAR could be on the verge of a recovery.

But for that to happen, some things have to change. In this analysis, CCN highlights the key levels to watch to validate the breakout and those that might render it null and void.

HBAR Repeats Bullish Setup, But Momentum Lacks Strength

On Jan. 17, HBAR’s price was $0.38. By Feb. 27, it had dropped to $0.20 amid intense selling pressure while hitting lower highs and lows.

This decline led to the formation of a falling wedge on the daily chart, which is bullish. Days later, the altcoin broke out of the wedge, rallying to $0.28 on March 2.

Today, HBAR seems to follow the same pattern and has formed a falling wedge since the swing high of $0.28. However, during the first wedge breakout, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flipped to the positive region, validating the bounce.

However, the MACD, which measures momentum, is in the negative region at press time. The indicator’s position implies bearish momentum, indicating that HBAR’s price might be challenging to bounce unless the rating improves.

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Concerning the short-term potential, analyst Carl Moon opined that the token could be ready for its next leg up. According to him, HBAR’s price only needs to break above the wedge to validate a possible return to $0.38.

“HBAR has been trading within this 1D falling wedge since December 2024. Once it breaks out to the upside, the target is $0.38,” Moon mentioned on X on April 1.

HBAR Price Analysis: Consolidation to Linger

Looking at the daily chart again, CCN observed that HBAR’s price keeps trading below the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). As seen below, the 50 EMA (yellow) has held its ground above the 20 EMA (blue), which is a “death cross.”

This death cross indicates a bearish trend, meaning HBAR’s price might keep consolidating or face another correction. If the altcoin fails to break above the 20 EMA, the next move for HBAR might be a decline toward $0.12.

It could also be the case should it fail to break above the upper trendline of the falling wedge. However, if demand for the token increases, the MACD reading might turn positive and validate the bullish outlook.

In that scenario, HBAR’s price might climb toward $0.22. Should the broader market condition improve, it could rally to $0.28, near the 0.382 Fibonacci level.