Hedera (HBAR) Price Hits Yearly Low Despite Canary Capital ETF

Key Takeaways

• Hedera’s (HBAR) price has fallen by 55% since its cycle high.
• The Hedera price reached a new yearly low on Feb. 25.
• Can the HBAR price bounce, or does more downside await?

The Hedera (HBAR) price mounted an impressive rally in December 2024, which led to the cycle high of $0.401 in January 2025.

However, February has not been kind to Hedera, which has fallen 55% since the high.

Despite the decline, there was positive HBAR news. Canary Capital has filed an amended S-1 form for its HBAR Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).

According to ETF Analyst Erich Balchunas, this often happens after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) comments on the previous filing, echoing Litecoin’s (LTC) filing.

Shortly afterward, they filed the 19b-4 form , which is the final step toward the ETF approval.

With HBAR teetering on the edge of a breakdown, the question remains: Can the HBAR ETF provide a much-needed boost for the price, or is Hedera doomed to fall to new lows?

Hedera Price Shows Weakness

The weekly HBAR chart shows that the price twice failed to break out from the $0.340 horizontal resistance area. It created three long upper wicks (red icons) before accelerating its bearish trend.

So far, HBAR has created six successive bearish weekly candlesticks, declining by 55% since the high.

If the Hedera decrease continues, the closest horizontal support is at $0.120, created by the previous resistance level, which will likely act as support if HBAR returns to it.

Technical indicators are decisively bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has decreased below 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has made a bearish cross (black circles).

The daily chart aligns with this possibility. It shows HBAR decreased under a descending resistance trend line since the Jan.17 high.

While the price showed some bullish signs with a bullish hammer candlestick (green icon) on Feb. 3, it has already retraced all of its gains and now risks creating a new low.

The HBAR price trades at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support level, a breakdown below, which could greatly accelerate the downward movement.

Furthermore, the RSI and MACD both support a breakdown since they are decreasing and in bearish territory.

So, the weekly and daily charts suggest HBAR will continue falling until it reaches the $0.120 area.

What’s Next for HBAR?

The long-term wave count shows that HBAR has completed an upward A-B-C correction (green) since the upward movement started.

The sub-wave count (black) suggests wave C is over since a five-wave upward movement has finished.

If this is the case, it would suggest that the entire increase in this cycle is just a corrective rally in response to the five-wave decline (red) that started after the 2021 all-time high.

As a result, the HBAR price has started another five-wave decline that will eventually take it below its 2023 lows of $0.040.

Alternatively, closing above the $0.30 horizontal resistance area will mean the HBAR trend is bullish, and the upward movement is impulsive.

This seems unlikely because of the bearish price action, wave count, and indicator readings.

New Lows in 2025

All signs suggest the HBAR price has completed its market cycle.

The HBAR ETF news did not provide any relief, and a breakdown below $0.184 can accelerate the downward movement toward new lows.