Key Takeaways
Despite struggling for most of the crypto market cycle, HBAR was a standout performer starting in November 2024. The price surged 900%, peaking at $0.392 in December.
Despite an initial decline, the price reached a slightly higher high in January 2025.
However, the trend has reversed, leading to a 50% decline. HBAR mounted an impressive rally on Feb. 3, closing the day on a positive note despite its flash crash.
Currently, HBAR trades at the support of its long-term horizontal range. Whether it bounces or breaks down could help determine its future trend.
Since December 2024, the HBAR price has traded inside a horizontal range between $0.250 and $0.370. Both the bottom and top of the range have been validated numerous times.
More recently, HBAR reached its cycle high of $0.401 on Jan. 17. However, it has fallen since. On Feb. 3, the price seemingly broke down from the horizontal range, leading to a low of $0.177.
Nevertheless, HBAR mounted an impressive increase, reclaiming the range low and creating a bullish hammer candlestick (white icon).
Measuring from the bottom, the Hedera price increased by 53%. It is currently retesting the $0.250 area as support again.
Despite the ongoing bounce, technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) fall below their bearish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively.
So, the daily time frame readings are inconclusive in determining if the trend is bullish or bearish since the price action is bullish while indicators are bearish.
While the price action and indicators are inconclusive, the wave count is decisively bearish. According to the count, HBAR has completed a five-wave upward movement (white) and is now correcting inside an A-B-C structure (black).
According to the count, the ongoing bounce is just a relief rally that will be followed by new lows. However, wave B could still take the HBAR price toward $0.35 before another downward movement follows.
Afterward, the target for the bottom of wave C is at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support level at $0.786.
The length of the previous increase suggests that HBAR can reach this target in April.
Alternatively, moving above the $0.403 high will mean that wave five has extended, and HBAR is still in its bullish phase.
This seems less likely because of the sharpness and magnitude of the decline.
The HBAR price showed impressive strength on Feb. 3, reaching a daily close despite a massive decline and liquidation event.
Despite the bounce and subsequent reclaim of its horizontal range, the wave count and technical indicators are bearish.
As a result, the ongoing bounce may simply be a relief rally that eventually leads to new lows.