Key Takeaways
To say that the Cosmos price performance this cycle has been underwhelming is an understatement. ATOM failed to rally significantly and broke down below its June 2022 low, which has been the cycle low for many other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin (BTC), for example, has surged over 500% from its cycle low. While ATOM has skipped its bull market entirely and resumed the correction, it started in 2021.
After a 42% decline in 2025, ATOM risks breaking down from the final support area before a new all-time low.
Let’s analyze the price movement and see how likely this is.
Since 2022, the ATOM price has traded inside a descending parallel channel, which means it has created lower highs and lower lows throughout the entire bull market. Currently, the price trades 90% below its all-time high.
In September 2024, ATOM fell to a yearly low of $3.61. The price bounced afterward and reclaimed the $6.40 horizontal area, which had previously acted as support for over two years.
The reclaimed suggested that the breakdown was a deviation, and ATOM finally started its upward movement.
However, this increase was still short-lived as the price fell below the horizontal area at the start of 2025. On Feb. 3, ATOM fell to a low of $3.65, nearly breaking its 2024 lows. If the decline continues, the channel’s support trend line will be near $3.
Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed below 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has fallen below 0 and made a bearish cross (black circle).
Therefore, the weekly time frame gives a bearish ATOM prediction, suggesting that new lows are likely.
The daily time frame chart gives a similarly bearish ATOM price outlook. Firstly, the previous increase resembles an A-B-C structure (white), meaning that the trend is likely bearish.
The ensuing decrease is a five-wave downward movement (black), confirming the bearish ATOM prediction.
If the count is accurate, ATOM is in wave three of this five-wave decline. Wave three could take it to its March 2020 support region of $2, which is the final support before the all-time low of $1.13.
Then, the fifth and final wave could cause ATOM to break to new lows. The daily RSI and MACD support this bearish outlook since both are falling and below their bullish thresholds.
There are no bullish divergences in place to predict a bullish trend reversal.
The ATOM price has performed terribly in the current bull market. The weekly and daily charts do not show any signs that give hope for a potential bullish trend reversal.
Rather, ATOM could continue falling toward its all-time low support region at $2.