Key Takeaways
Hedera (HBAR) has displayed mixed price action across higher and lower time frames. The daily chart shows consolidation after a prior impulsive rally, suggesting a corrective phase within a broader Elliott Wave structure.
Meanwhile, the hourly chart presents emerging breakout scenarios, hinting at potential bullish or bearish pathways contingent on key levels being breached.
The daily chart shows HBAR has completed an impulsive Wave 3 rally that peaked near $0.392 on Dec. 3 before entering a corrective Wave 4 phase.
The correction aligns well with Elliott Wave guidelines, forming a descending wedge pattern supported by Fibonacci retracement levels.
The 0.382 ($0.290) and 0.5 ($0.260) retracement levels have proven critical in maintaining the correction’s structural integrity.
This consolidation phase could have occurred as an ABCDE correction to a low of $0.235 on Dec. 20, as indicated by the internal wave count.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is neutral, oscillating around the midline, reflecting indecision and a lack of strong momentum in either direction.
However, a decisive break above $0.392 would confirm a bullish continuation into Wave 5, with potential targets near $0.50 or higher based on Fibonacci extensions.
The descending wedge structure highlights converging price action, often preceding a breakout. Sustained buying pressure above the wedge’s upper boundary could trigger the next impulsive wave, but a breakdown below $0.259 at 0.382 Fib may invalidate this bullish scenario, leading to further downside.
On the hourly chart, HBAR is approaching the conclusion of Wave (ii), having rebounded from the wedge’s lower boundary near $0.259.
This movement suggests a potential Wave (iii) breakout, contingent upon breaching the immediate resistance at $0.31.
A bullish target for Wave (iii) is near $0.392, aligning with the previous daily high.
However, a bearish alternate scenario sees Wave (ii) evolving into a deeper correction, possibly testing the 0.5 retracement level at $0.216.
This aligns with a Wave Y target in a broader corrective structure, where a breakdown below $0.257 invalidates the bullish wave count.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum on the hourly timeframe has started to turn upward, signaling early signs of bullish interest.
Therefore, this aligns with the recent price action pushing against the wedge’s upper boundary. A confirmed breakout would pave the way for a strong Wave (iii), initially targeting $0.35, with extended targets at $0.40 and beyond if momentum sustains.