Ethereum (ETH) fell short of reclaiming its all-time high in 2024, even as many of its competitors surged past their previous peaks. A final rally in December pushed ETH to a yearly high of $4,107—still 16% below its record.
2025 has brought fresh challenges for the second-largest crypto.
ETH has formed a lower high and is now breaking down from a key horizontal support level. While the recent decline is concerning, some indicators suggest this could be the final phase of the downward trend, potentially setting the stage for a rebound toward new highs.
Ethereum’s price has been on a downward trajectory since hitting its 2024 peak of $4,107 on Dec. 16.
After a brief recovery on Dec. 20, marked by a long lower wick that reaffirmed the ascending parallel channel, the cryptocurrency rallied to $3,744. However, the momentum faltered, resulting in a lower high, and ETH has been declining ever since.
Currently, Ethereum is on the brink of slipping back into the channel, which could worsen the ongoing correction. Should this occur, ETH might descend toward the channel’s midpoint, around $2,900.
With only some hours remaining until the daily close, Ethereum is forming a bearish candlestick under the crucial $3,290 horizontal support level, signaling a potential deeper drop.
Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook.
Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are declining and remain below their respective bullish thresholds of 50 and 0.
Additionally, the absence of bullish divergences suggests that a trend reversal is not imminent.
Overall, the daily time frame projects a bearish scenario for Ethereum, with a fall below $3,000 appearing increasingly likely.
Ethereum’s weekly outlook reveals that it has been correcting within a large symmetrical triangle (black) since its all-time high of $4,868 in November 2021. In the context of its long-term upward trajectory, this triangle is part of wave four of a larger rally that began in November 2018.
The formation of this triangle bears resemblance to XRP’s pattern, which led to a remarkable 400% breakout in 2024.
If Ethereum’s pattern follows suit, it could potentially reach a high of $7,432, marking the peak of wave five. This target aligns with the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement level from the previous downturn.
Short-term projections indicate that Ethereum still needs to complete the final leg of its decline. The minor sub-wave count (yellow) suggests a drop to the $2,826-$2,866 range. This would align the lengths of sub-waves A and C, bringing ETH to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support level.
Once the correction concludes, Ethereum could embark on the next phase of its long-term upward movement, potentially driving it toward a new all-time high.
Ethereum created a lower high in 2025 and is breaking down from a minor horizontal support area. The price action and the wave count both point to more downside. If Ethereum completes its downward movement as predicted, it will reach a bottom near $2,826-$2,866. This is likely the final portion of a lengthy correction, after which a breakout and new all-time high are likely.