Key Takeaways
Dogecoin (DOGE) appears to have completed a multi-month corrective pattern and is now exhibiting signs of a fresh, impulsive breakout.
The confluence of a falling wedge breakout, improving momentum, and early-stage Elliott wave counts indicate the beginning of a bullish structure that could unfold over the coming days.
We analyze the higher timeframe setup on the 4-hour chart and a near-term breakout structure on the 1-hour chart.
On the 4-hour chart, Dogecoin has emerged from a prolonged correction characterized by an ABCDE falling wedge formation.
The final wave (E) appears to have completed near $0.14, slightly below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulsive cycle.
The breakout above the wedge and horizontal resistance at $0.174 marked a significant shift in sentiment.
Elliott Wave labeling suggests the prior five-wave impulse from $0.06 to $0.48 culminated in November, followed by a broad corrective wave that concluded with the recent breakout.
This breakout confirms the end of the corrective phase and the probable start of a new impulsive cycle.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe broke out from neutral territory and now holds near 70, reflecting growing bullish pressure.
Despite the breakout, the price still faces a confluence of resistances, including the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $0.24 from the prior decline and key structural zones around $0.20 and $0.25.
The current advance suggests wave 1 of a new impulsive series is underway, and bulls may attempt to establish higher lows above the breakout zone for continuation.
The 1-hour chart provides clarity on the immediate wave structure post-breakout.
Dogecoin appears to be unfolding a five-wave structure from the March 11 low at $0.143.
Waves (i) and (ii) seem to be completed, and the current rally suggests wave (iii) is in progress. The breakout reached the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at $0.188, confirming initial bullish momentum.
Assuming wave (iii) is still active, its 1.618 Fibonacci extension projects a potential target at $0.213, with wave (v) possibly reaching $0.225 or even $0.24.
The RSI remains bullish but is not overbought, suggesting further upside potential exists before a corrective wave (iv) sets in.
A brief consolidation near $0.18–$0.183 could support a pullback, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the move from wave (ii).
If wave (iv) materializes from here, it could retrace to this range before launching wave (v) toward the $0.22–$0.24 region.
Sustained movement above $0.195 will confirm the continuation of wave (iii), while a break below $0.174 would challenge the bullish count.
This analysis highlights the technical foundations of Dogecoin’s current rally, with multiple signals confirming bullish momentum.
However, maintaining key support zones will be crucial for this uptrend to develop further.