Key Takeaways
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been undergoing a prolonged correction following a parabolic move to $0.486. The price has bounced from the recent low, suggesting a potential bottom formation.
The 4-hour chart shows a completed Elliott Wave corrective structure. In contrast, the 1-hour chart indicates an early-stage impulse wave that could confirm a trend reversal if it breaks above key resistance levels.
DOGE has completed an extended five-wave Elliott Wave structure, peaking at $0.486. This was followed by an ABCDE corrective pattern that culminated in a descending wedge.
The final leg of the correction found support at $0.145, slightly below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which historically acts as a strong reversal zone.
The breakout from the descending wedge structure will suggest bullish momentum is attempting to return.
However, the price still faces overhead resistance at the $0.175 level (0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the last downward move). A successful break above this level could confirm a trend reversal and open the door to a potential rally toward $0.215 and $0.24.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been recovering from oversold conditions since March 11, supporting the case for a reversal.
If the RSI continues to climb and price action holds above $0.167, DOGE could enter a new uptrend.
However, failure to maintain support could result in further downside toward $0.16.
The 1-hour chart provides a closer look at DOGE’s potential breakout structure. The price recently formed a minor higher low, indicating the possibility of an early impulse wave.
If this wave structure holds, DOGE could enter wave 3 of a five-wave upward movement.
Currently, DOGE is testing support around $0.167 and must hold above this level to maintain bullish momentum.
The immediate resistance to watch is $0.174, which aligns with the 0.786 retracement level of the latest correction.
A successful breakout above $0.174 could validate the wave 3 extension, with Fibonacci targets at $0.194 (1.0 extension), $0.203 (1.272 extension), and $0.227 (1.618 extension).
If DOGE fails to break out and falls below $0.161, the bullish scenario would be invalidated, suggesting further downside risk.
The RSI on the 1-hour chart is currently neutral, indicating consolidation before the next move. A surge above 50 on the RSI would further confirm bullish momentum.
DOGE appears to be in the early stages of a potential trend reversal.
Confirmation above resistance levels would solidify a bullish breakout, while failure to hold key supports could lead to continued consolidation or further downside.