Dogecoin trades below its 20-day EMA, signaling sustained bearish control and mounting downside pressure.
A negative Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) confirms active distribution, with sellers dominating the market.
Failure to hold $0.088 support could send DOGE toward $0.08, unless bullish momentum returns.
The meme coin sector of the cryptocurrency market has seen its total market capitalization contract by over 13% in the last 30 days.
This forms part of a broader exodus from high-risk digital assets that has plagued the market over the past month.
Leading meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) has been impacted by this dip. During the 30-day period in question, the token’s value has dropped by 14% and appears poised to continue falling.
DOGE Demand Gap Widens
According to Glassnode, DOGE’s price decline over the past few weeks has been accompanied by a reduction in the daily count of new wallets trading the meme coin.
Observed using a 30-day small moving average, the number of unique addresses that have appeared for the first time in a transaction involving DOGE has tumbled by 8% since February 26.
When a price fall is accompanied by a dip in new active addresses, it signals a lack of conviction from the broader market. This puts DOGE at risk of a prolonged demand vacuum where sellers outnumber buyers, extending its price decline.
In addition, the current surge in DOGE’s deposits on exchanges supports this bearish outlook. Per Glassnode, the number of DOGE held across exchange wallets is currently at a two-week high of 19.85 billion, up 3% since February 23.
When exchange holdings climb, it signals a shift in investor behavior from long-term holding to active selling.
Large-scale transfers to exchanges like this are often viewed as a precursor to selling. By increasingly moving their DOGE coins onto exchanges over the past few days, holders are positioning themselves to exit quickly to cut losses.
DOGE Enters Distribution Phase
On the daily chart, DOGE’s negative Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also hints at the possibility for further losses. At press time, this momentum indicator, which measures money flow into and out of an asset, is at -0.10.
A negative CMF reading like this indicates the asset is experiencing more selling pressure than buying pressure.
When this occurs during a period of price decline, as in DOGE’s case, it signals a “distribution phase” in which smart money and retail traders alike are actively liquidating their positions.
Moreover, the meme coin trades below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently serves as dynamic resistance at $0.0964, above DOGE’s price.
The 20-day EMA measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading sessions, giving more weight to recent prices. When the price remains below this line, it signals that bears maintain control, and short-term sentiment is tilted toward the downside.
Without renewed buyer interest or an uptick in network activity, DOGE risks sliding toward the next support level at $0.088.
Should the bulls fail to defend this price floor, it could trigger a further dip to $0.08.
DOGE/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
However, if sentiment improves and bullish momentum returns to the broader market, the meme coin could stage a breakout above $0.0943 and attempt to rally above its 20-day EMA.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
