Home / Analysis / Crypto / Technical Analysis / Dogecoin’s (DOGE) Minor Bounce Changes Nothing as These Indicators Reveal the Bearish Trend Is Still Intact
Dogecoin is showing failed attempts to hold above $0.10 | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
DOGE’s price sits near $0.09 after a minor 24-hour gain, yet volume has dropped 11%.
Open interest has fallen 4.34% while Dogecoin’s price has remained relatively stable
DOGE remains below key Fibonacci resistance at $0.13 and continues printing lower highs.
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recent uptick was short-lived. What seemed like a recovery quickly reversed, leaving key technical levels untouched.
Selling pressure is mounting, with volume up 10% even as the price drifts lower, a clear signal that bears remain in control.
DOGE’s price is trading around $0.098, up just 1% in the past 24 hours, but the surge in activity suggests the downtrend could persist.
Bulls Stall Below $0.12
Bulls have lost momentum at the $0.12 resistance zone on the 4-hour chart.
As seen below, Dogecoin’s price recently staged a sharp rebound from roughly $0.078, yet the rally stalled as sellers defended overhead supply.
As a result, the broader structure still reflects a market under pressure despite the short-term recovery.
Earlier, price attempted a breakout from a rising channel, which initially signaled strengthening demand.
However, that move quickly failed, and the rejection pushed the token back into consolidation.
Consequently, the market shifted from expansion to balance, with neither side showing decisive control.
Momentum indicators confirm this hesitation.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has slipped slightly below zero, indicating that the bullish impulse faded after the mid-month surge.
Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reads just above neutral at 0.02, showing mild inflows but no aggressive accumulation. Therefore, capital is entering slowly rather than driving a trend.
Technically, Dogecoin’s price now sits between a firm support cluster around $0.07-$0.08 and layered resistance near $0.10 and $0.12.
If buyers reclaim $0.11 with volume, sentiment could improve and open the path toward a resistance retest.
Overall, the market remains neutral to slightly bearish in the near term. Momentum has cooled, liquidity is cautious, and price action signals indecision.
Derivatives Traders Reduce Exposure
Dogecoin’s open interest has dropped 4.34%, even as the price hovers around $0.098. The pullback in derivatives positioning signals traders are reducing exposure rather than adding fresh leverage.
A decline in open interest while price remains relatively stable points to position unwinding.
In simple terms, traders are closing contracts. This reduces speculative pressure in the market.
Meanwhile, spot netflow turned slightly positive, with $3.41 million flowing into exchanges.
That suggests short-term selling intent may be rising, although the inflow remains modest and far from aggressive distribution levels.
Should this remain the same, DOGE’s price might fail to build on its recent stable trend.
DOGE Price Outlook: Downtrend Remains Intact
Dogecoin trades near $0.098 on the daily chart, holding above the $0.079 swing low but still locked in a broader downtrend.
Price remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $0.134 and far under the 0.382 level at $0.168, confirming that sellers retain structural control.
Although recent candles show a minor bounce, the descending trendline continues to cap upside attempts.
The structure remains bearish. Dogecoin continues to print lower highs, and every rally is quickly rejected. As long as DOGE’s price stays below $0.134, upside moves are corrective, not reversal signals.
However, momentum is stabilizing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 42 and is rising, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) hovers around neutral levels.
Selling pressure is easing, but strong accumulation is not yet visible.
If DOGE’s price holds above $0.079, a relief push toward $0.13 could develop. Conversely, a break below $0.079 would likely extend the downtrend.
For now, stabilization is forming. But the trend has not flipped.
Has DOGE Price Hit the Cycle Bottom?
In the meantime, crypto analyst Hailey Lunc suggests Dogecoin may have reached a cycle low.
Drawing on historical patterns, she highlighted previous cycles’ explosive gains: the 2017 cycle surged by 9,200% in roughly 300 days, while the prior cycle soared by 26,000% in about 150 days.
“If the pattern holds, a major move is incoming,” Lunc added, signaling that investors could see significant upside if Dogecoin follows historical trends.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
