A 306 million token unlock for ZRO, MON, and H is approaching. Will the added supply trigger selling pressure? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Upcoming token unlocks worth about $68 million could introduce selling pressure, potentially driving the next market move.
LayerZero faces the highest risk due to its large unlock size, while Monad and Humanity Protocol may see high volatility.
Market impact will depend on demand absorption; weak demand is likely to lead to price declines and increased volatility.
The next major move in the cryptomarket may not come from demand. By the look of things, it may come from the supply.
This is because three high-profile tokens, including LayerZero (ZRO), Monad (MON), and Humanity Protocol (H), are preparing to unlock a combined 306 million tokens next week, introducing a significant wave of new supply into the market.
Interestingly, this has come at a time when some altcoin prices have increased. But timing matters.
In this analysis, CCN examines what could happen before and after these crypto token unlocks.
LayerZero (ZRO) leads in value, with 26 million tokens set to be released, worth approximately $50.18 million at current prices. That alone represents the bulk of the event’s financial impact.
Monad (MON) follows with a much larger token count (170 million) but a lower valuation of around $5.77 million.
Humanity Protocol (H) sits in between, with 110 million tokens valued at roughly $12.15 million.
Together, the three unlocks amount to nearly $68 million in new supply entering circulation.
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Among the three, LayerZero carries the most immediate risk.
With over $50 million in tokens unlocking, even a partial sell-off could put noticeable pressure on the price. The size of the unlock relative to liquidity will determine its impact.
If demand absorbs the supply, the effect may be limited. If not, the imbalance can push the price lower quickly.
Ahead of the event, ZRO’s price has fallen over the past 30 days.
First, the price has broken out of the descending channel and is no longer making lower lows. This signals a shift from a bearish to a neutral structure.
Then, the price is moving sideways between $1.89 (0.236) and $1.99 (0.382). This range is acting as a consolidation zone, with multiple rejections on both sides.
Meanwhile, momentum is stabilizing. For instance, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is flattening near zero, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.
At the same time, RSI is hovering around 50, reflecting neutral conditions with no strong trend.
Notably, previous bearish divergences have already played out. Now, the market is resetting after the previous move.
If ZRO’s price breaks above the $2.00 resistance, continuation toward $2.06 (0.5) will likely follow. Beyond that, a move toward $2.14 (0.618) could develop.
However, if support at $1.89 fails, the price will likely revisit the $1.74 low.
Monad (MON) Price Action Tells a Different Story
While MON and H are smaller in dollar terms, their crypto token unlocks are significant.
Large unlock volumes can still influence sentiment, particularly in markets with thinner liquidity. Even if the total value is lower, perception plays a role.
Traders often react to the idea of dilution, not just the actual numbers. That’s where secondary pressure can emerge.
At the time of writing, Monad trades near $0.034, following a 40% increasing within the past month.
Notably, the price has formed a clear rounding structure after a prolonged downtrend. Selling pressure has gradually faded, while higher lows have been developing.
Besides that, the price is breaking above the neckline resistance around $0.030. This level has acted as a key barrier, and the breakout is confirming a shift in structure.
Now, price is pushing into the 0.5 Fib ($0.033) and testing the 0.618 ($0.037). This shows strong follow-through, with buyers maintaining control.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has been printing strong green bars. Momentum has been building consistently, although the latest bars are starting to compress slightly, indicating a minor slowdown.
At the same time, Supertrend has flipped bullish and is now acting as key support. This further supports the ongoing uptrend.
However, price is approaching a key resistance zone near $0.040. This area previously triggered rejection, so some consolidation is likely occurring here.
If the price holds above the $0.029 breakout level, a continuation toward $0.042 (0.786) is likely. However, if rejection strengthens, a pullback toward the breakout zone could occur before continuation.
Humanity Protocol (H) Price Analysis
At the time of writing, the Humanity Protocol price trades at $0.12. This follows a 30% rise in the last seven days.
First, price has been trending downward within a clear falling wedge. Lower highs and lower lows have been compressing, signaling weakening bearish momentum.
Then, the price is breaking out of the wedge to the upside. This marks a shift from bearish to neutral structure, with early signs of buyer control returning.
Now, price is reclaiming the 0.236 Fib (~$0.11). This level is acting as the first key support pivot after the breakout.
Meanwhile, the recent candles are printing higher lows, confirming short-term strength. The structure is beginning to shift into an early uptrend.
However, the price is approaching the 0.382 Fib ($0.18), a key resistance zone. Previous reactions around this level suggest sellers are likely to respond here.
If the price continues to hold above $0.11, a move toward $0.17 is likely. A clean breakout above that level could open the path toward $0.22 (0.5 Fib).
On the downside, if the price fails to hold the breakout amid the crypto token unlocks and drops back into the wedge, the bullish setup will likely weaken.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
