Alameda Research transferred 7.93 million ZRO ($15.3M) to Wintermute over the past 11 hours, mirroring a pattern that preceded a 47% price crash in February.
On-chain metrics, including rising Liveliness and a bearish volume divergence signal, indicate that both long-term holders and short-term traders are actively selling.
ZRO trades below its 20-day EMA, with $1.45 as the next key support; a break below could trigger a further 23% decline.
Bankrupt trading firm Alameda Research has deposited 7.93 million ZRO tokens, worth approximately $15.3 million, to market maker Wintermute over the past 11 hours.
According to Lookonchain, this is not the first time Alameda has offloaded ZRO.
The firm has sold the token on multiple prior occasions, and nearly every time coincided with a local price top, followed by a sharp decline.
With ZRO down 8% over the past day and topping the market as today’s biggest loser, history may be about to repeat itself.
Alameda Research Moves $15.3M in ZRO to Wintermute
Data from Arkham Intel shows that in a series of 5 transfer transactions completed over the past 11 hours, Alameda Research moved 7.93 million ZRO, worth $15.3 million, from its BitGo custody wallet to Wintermute.
The process began with a minor 5 ZRO test transfer sent from a WalletSimple custody wallet to a Wintermute deposit address.
This was followed by two batched transfers of 4.126 million ZRO and 3.81 million ZRO. Each was routed from BitGo through a Wintermute deposit address before being forwarded into its hot wallet.
Alameda Research Wintermute Deposit | Credit: Arkham Intel
Data Shows Alameda’s ZRO Sales Have Repeatedly Preceded Sharp Drops
In a post on X, on-chain sleuth Lookonchain observed that “Alameda Research had sold $ZRO several times before, and almost every time, it sold near a local top.”
An assessment of the firm’s transfer patterns over the past few months confirms this. Per Arkham Intel, on February 12, Alameda Research offloaded over $42 million worth of ZRO through the same BitGo-to-Wintermute pipeline.
Alameda Research Wintermute Deposit | Credit: Arkham Intel
The timing of these trades was significant. The transfers came a day after ZRO surged to a 127-day high of $2.59 on February 11, and the sell-side pressure that followed was strong.
Within weeks, ZRO had shed nearly half its value. It fell to a cycle low of $1.38 by February 19 as the market absorbed Alameda’s distribution.
With $15.3 million now sitting in Wintermute’s hot wallet and technical indicators signaling waning bullish sentiment, ZRO may be poised to extend its decline.
ZRO’s Most Committed Holders Are Starting to Sell
While its price is down 8% over the past 24 hours, ZRO’s daily trading volume has rocketed by 37%.
This double-digit surge forms a negative divergence, which arises when an asset’s price falls while its trading volume rises.
In market setups like this, the rising volume signals sellers are in control. It suggests participants are actively offloading positions rather than holding through the dip.
Furthermore, ZRO’s Liveliness has trended higher in the past two days, suggesting that long-term holders (LTHs) have begun selling their tokens. According to Glassnode, the metric closed March 30 at 0.52.
Liveliness tracks the movement of previously dormant tokens. It does this by measuring the ratio of an asset’s coin days destroyed to the total coin days accumulated.
When it falls, LTHs are moving their assets off exchanges, often a bullish sign of accumulation. On the other hand, when an asset’s liveliness rises, as it has with ZRO, it means more dormant coins are being moved or sold.
For ZRO, the reason for this is clear. The broader market’s lackluster performance has pushed its price down by nearly 15% over the past week, dampening sentiment even among investors who are otherwise known to hold through periods of volatility.
When LTHs, who typically are the most conviction-driven cohort in any asset’s holder base, begin selling, it signals that patience is wearing thin.
Their participation in the current sell-off adds another layer of selling pressure, suggesting the ZRO’s price may continue to fall in the near term until sentiment improves.
ZRO Faces 23% Drop If Bulls Fail to Hold Current Levels
On the daily chart, ZRO sits below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which now serves as dynamic resistance at $2.01. At press time, the altcoin trades at $1.86.
The 20-day EMA averages an asset’s price over the past 20 trading days, giving more weight to recent prices. It acts as a resistance or support line, depending on whether it lies above or below an asset’s price.
When the 20-day EMA is above the price, as with ZRO, it signals a bearish short-term trend.
For ZRO to neutralize this bearish structure, it would need to sustain a close above $2.01. A daily close above this level could open the door to a rally toward $2.10, and a further push to $2.59.
However, with falling market demand for ZRO, it risks testing the support floor at $1.71.
If the bulls fail to defend this level, the altcoin may drop 22% from its current price to trade at $1.45.
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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
