Key Takeaways
The crypto market cap reached a new all-time high in December 2024. While Bitcoin reached a new high during Donald Trump’s inauguration day on Jan. 20, 2025, the crypto market cap did not do the same.
The lengthy period of consolidation has some worrying that the current market cycle is over.
With that in mind, let’s compare the current cycle’s movement to the previous one to see if any similarities arise that can help predict if the rally is over.
The TOTALCAP has been gradually increasing since November 2022. The increase follows a five-wave upward movement (white), where TOTALCAP is in the fifth and final wave, which started after the channel breakout in August 2024.
It is unclear if wave five has ended. On one hand, the wave already has the same length as waves one and three combined, making it likely that the run is over.
However, the sub-wave count predicts another high before the end of the cycle.
Technical indicators give similarly mixed readings. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) created a bearish divergence, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) did not.
So, the stats from this cycle are as follows:
It took the total market cap 756 days since the lows to reach a new all-time high and 1,134 days since the previous all-time high. TOTALCAP increased slightly over 430%.
Wave five has been the same length as waves one and three combined, and the RSI has had a bearish divergence but not in the MACD.
The previous cycle was much longer than the current one. TOTALCAP increased in December 2018 and accelerated its upward movement in December 2020.
After a brief pause in May 2021, TOTALCAP continued moving higher until it culminated with a then-all-time high of $3.01 trillion in November 2021. The high was combined with bearish divergences in the RSI and MACD (green).
The stats from the previous cycle are as follows:
It took the market cap 1,064 days since the lows to reach a new all-time high and 1,407 days since the previous all-time high.
Wave five had 0.618 times the length of waves one and three combined, and there was a bearish divergence in both the RSI and MACD.
The market increased by an impressive 3,441% since the low.
So, if the current cycle were to end, it would be much shorter than the previous ones. With the exception of the wave five extension, all signs were more bearish in 2021 than they are currently.
Another interesting observation is that after the 2021 high, TOTALCAP created five successive bearish weekly candlesticks.
This has not happened at the current rally since the price exceeds the previous all-time high.
The biggest difference between the two cycles is the magnitude of the increase, which was eight times larger in the previous cycle.
Based on this comparison, it is more likely that TOTALCAP will continue increasing for at least another month before eventually reaching its top.
Despite its relatively lengthy and impressive rise in this cycle, the TOTALCAP increase in the last cycle dwarfs the current one.
TOTALCAP’s upward movement is eight times smaller in magnitude and has been shorter by 300 or 400 days, depending on whether it measured from the low or from the high.
Indicator readings and the price action show weakness. Still, they were decisively more bearish at the December 2021 cycle top, making it possible that the current rally has not ended yet.