Bitcoin on-Chain Data Gives Overbought Signal — What This Means for the Bull Market

The Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of $103,620 on Dec. 5. The rapid increase since November has caused unrealized profits to spike, reaching overbought levels. Historically, these periods were associated with parabolic increases, but warned that the BTC cycle top is in.

With that in mind, let’s look at some on-chain Bitcoin indicators and compare them to their respective values during the previous cycle tops to determine how much time is there in the ongoing bull market.

Bitcoin’s NUPL

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator measures the amount of unrealized profit or loss as a percentage of the market cap. It can determine the psychological state of market participants. High values are associated with euphoria and have historically occurred at the top of the Bitcoin market cycle.

The current NUPL reading is 0.62, below the euphoria level of 0.75. Additionally, it is below the previous cycle highs of 0.82, 0.79, and 0.72 (black circles). As a result, the current NUPL reading suggests there is more room to grow.

However, the bearish divergence (green) is concerning since it led to the beginning of the correction in 2021.

A closer look at the short-term holder (STH) cohort lessens some fears since the indicator is still at 0.25.  Each previous high has had a value above 0.25 ,and some have even had readings of 0.5.

So, combining both NUPLs suggests that Bitcoin can continue increasing. The short-term holder NUPL is not overbought, lessening the possibility of a short-term decline before the trend resumes.

NUPL Signal

A similar metric is the NUPL signal. It uses standard deviations of the 4-year average to determine if the market is overbought or oversold.

High-risk values are those above 0.59 (red), which have historically heightened the chance of a correction. As noted above, Bitcoin’s NUPL is 0.62 inside the high-risk zone.

However, an analysis of the previous cycles shows that the correction did not start immediately after the indicator reached this level.

On the contrary, the indicator stood above this level for 6 and 5 months, respectively, in the two previous BTC market cycles.

Since the NUPL recently crossed above 0.59, it means the Bitcoin bull run will continue until at least April 2025. This also aligns with the readings from the STH-NUPL cohort.

Several Months Left

Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators give overbought signals. However, they are still well below those during the previous cycle highs. Moreover, STH participants do not have a significant portion of unrealized profits, reducing the chance of a short-term decline.

Finally, the NUPL signal suggests the bull run can continue until April 2026.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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