The MVRV Z-Score indicator has not been overbought yet.
The Pu Complete Install Multiple trades well below previous highs.
Bitcoin’s Pi Cycle Top has not made a cross yet.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price reached a new all-time high of $103,647 on Dec. 5. While the price fell the same day, it has regained its footing since, creating a higher low and nearly reaching its previous highs.
Once Bitcoin breaks its all-time high, on-chain indicators can help determine when the cycle will end.
Let’s analyze three specific on-chain indicators that have previously accurately predicted these tops and see how much room is left to grow.
The MVRV Z-Score is an indicator that shows whether Bitcoin is under or overvalued. It compares the market value to the realized value. When Bitcoin’s market value is much higher than the realized one, BTC is considered overbought, and vice versa.
Historically, values near 7 are considered overbought and have marked the top of Bitcoin’s market cycles.
The actual values have been 12.52, 11.01, and 7.55 in each previous Bitcoin cycle. So, the indicator has consistently made lower highs.
However, the trend line is at 4.5, under the current MVRV Z-Score of 3.2. As a result, even if the declining high trend persists, the MVRV Z-Score has further room left to grow before it reaches the top.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple is a mining indicator created by dividing the daily issuance value of Bitcoin by its 365-day moving average.
It identifies periods of miner profitability or distress through the daily miner revenue and its historical average.
In all previous Bitcoin cycles, the Puell multiple reached an initial high before halving (dashed).
Then, it reached a higher high that coincided with the Bitcoin market cycle top.
As of the time of writing, the long-term MA (purple) is at $125,7,906. So, the BTC price and the short-term MA (blue) must cross above the long-term one to confirm the Bitcoin cycle top.
More Room to Grow
MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, and Pi Cycle tops are three on-chain indicators that have accurately predicted Bitcoin market cycle tops before.
Even their conservative targets indicate that Bitcoin has more room to grow.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
