Chainlink (LINK) Finds Lifeline at 644-Day Support, Halting Price Drop

Key Takeaways

• Chainlink (LINK) reached a 644-day support trend line.
• The LINK price failed to sustain a breakout above $22.50.
• Will Chainlink bounce at the trend line, or will it break down?
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The Chainlink price has fallen significantly since its cycle high of $30.95 in December 2024, invalidating its previous long-term breakout. The decline led to a 2025 low of $11.87 on March 11.

The decrease took the Chainlink price back to a long-term diagonal support trend line that has existed for the entirety of the bull run. If LINK breaks down, it will confirm the bearish trend has started.

With that in mind, let’s look at the price action and see if LINK can prevent the breakdown with a bounce.

LINK Price Reaches Support

The weekly time frame LINK chart shows that the price has increased alongside an ascending support trend line since June 2023.

In November 2024, the price bounced at the trend line, seemingly breaking out from the long-term $22.50 horizontal resistance area.

However, LINK could not sustain the increase; instead, it deviated above the resistance (black circle) and then fell below it.

LINK also deviated above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance of the entire downward movement since the all-time high.

The LINK price has fallen since, reaching the support trend line again with a low of $11.85. The trend line has existed for 644 days.

Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50, while the MACD has made a bearish cross, signaling a bearish trend.

The long-term wave count aligns with this bearish outlook. Because of the recent decline, the entire increase resembles an A-B-C structure (green).

This means the increase was a relief rally in response to the previous five-wave downward movement (red) after the all-time high.

If the count is accurate, the LINK price will eventually break down from the trend line and begin a new downward movement to new lows.

Nevertheless, the trend line may cause a short-term bounce before the LINK price eventually breaks down.

LINK Bounce Incoming?

Last week brought some positive Chainlink news since CEO Sergey Nazarov was one of the main speakers of the first-ever White House crypto summit.

He mentioned the growing importance of stablecoins, the need for regulatory clarity in decentralized finance, and how important it is to create assets in the U.S. if the latter is to become the crypto capital of the world.

He reiterated that Chainlink uniquely supports these objectives and followed that by being a keynote speaker at the Ondo Finance Summit on March 10.

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The daily time frame also offers hope for a possible bounce. Firstly, the LINK decline is contained inside a descending parallel channel, often leading to breakouts.

Currently, the Chainlink price trades at the channel’s support trend line, making an eventual breakout likely.

Furthermore, the daily RSI and MACD have generated bullish divergences, often associated with upward movements.

If LINK increases, the first resistance will be at the channel’s midline at $16.30, while the second will be at its resistance at $20.50.

Because of the long-term readings, the LINK price could get rejected at the channel’s trend line, resuming its decent to new lows.

On the other hand, a breakout above the channel will raise doubts about whether the bearish count is accurate.

Bearish LINK Trend

Chainlink’s long-term trend is likely bearish due to the failure to maintain the breakout above $22.50.

A breakout from the long-term ascending support trend line will confirm this. However, a short-term bounce could happen before the eventual breakdown.