Cardano (ADA) Price Hangs by a Thread — Breakdown Risks a Major Drop

Key Takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) has fallen by 40% since its March highs.
• The ADA price trades inside the long-term $0.73 support.
• Will Cardano bounce, or is a breakdown inevitable?
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The ADA price started March with a bang, increasing over 70% after U.S. President Donald Trump included it in the five cryptocurrencies selected for the strategic crypto reserve.

This week, there was some positive Cardano news. Cardano’s Venture Hub announced the first cohort of five ventures joining the program, selected from 46 submissions , aiming to drive ecosystem growth.

With that in mind, let’s look at the Cardano price movement and see if ADA can prevent a breakdown from its long-term support of $0.73.

ADA Returns to Support

The weekly time frame shows that ADA has fallen since its cycle high of $1.33 in December 2024.

The price created a lower high (red icon) in March, confirming the $1.20 horizontal area as resistance and creating a bearish, engulfing candlestick the next day.

The high coincided with Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic crypto reserve and ADA’s inclusion.

Currently, ADA trades inside the $0.73 horizontal support area. After acting as resistance at the beginning of 2024, the area has turned to support.

A breakdown below it could accelerate the downward movement toward $0.48.

Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50, and the MACD has made a bearish cross.

Therefore, the weekly time frame suggests an eventual ADA breakdown is likely. Let’s look at the short-term outlook to determine if ADA can bounce before breaking down.

Can Cardano Bounce?

The daily time frame gives a similarly bearish prediction. The wave count suggests that ADA is in wave C of an A-B-C correction that started in December 2024.

If wave C has the same length as wave A, the price will reach a low of $0.38.

Currently, ADA trades just above the minor support at $0.66. A breakdown will confirm that the downward movement has started, taking ADA to new lows.

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The sub-wave count (black) aligns with the breaking, suggesting that ADA has just started the fifth and final wave of the downward movement.

The count is characterized by a symmetrical triangle in wave four, the most common pattern for the wave.

Giving sub-wave five the same length as sub-wave one leads to a target of $0.36, aligning with the wave A:C target.

On the other hand, breaking out from the triangle will invalidate this count. The ADA price could then begin a relief rally toward $0.80.

ADA Breakdown Ahead

The ADA price prevented a breakdown by bouncing inside a long-term horizontal support level.

However, the long- and short-term readings suggest a breakdown is likely, causing a decline to $0.48 and possibly $0.37.