Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has left holders frustrated. Despite positive news, including Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the first-ever White House crypto summit, the Bitcoin price has been in a free fall, reaching a low of $76,600 on March 11.
While sentiment leans bearish, let’s analyze some on-chain indicators to understand how long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) are handling the correction.
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator helps determine market sentiment by measuring the unrealized profit and losses and comparing them to the market cap. High values have historically coincided with a Bitcoin cycle top.
The indicator is divided into the short- and long-term holders thresholds by splitting UTXOs of shorter and longer than 155 days.
The STH-NUPL indicator shows that short-term holders have severe losses at -0.06. This means that STHs have unrealized losses of 6% of the market cap. This value led to bounces in the bull market (black circles).
However, the indicator has fallen nearly ten times lower to -0.60 when the Bitcoin price started its bear market. Thus, the STH-NUPL could continue falling if the Bitcoin price is in a bear market.
Long-Term Holders Distribute
In the two most recent cycles, the LTH-NUPL increased above 0.75, trading there for several months before the market peaked. It did so for six months in 2017 and four months in 2021.
The current Bitcoin cycle has been different, since the on-chain indicator (black circle) barely crossed 0.75 for less than a month before falling. The indicator is now at 0.6.
The pronounced selling usually lasts for several months before the market reverses.
These conditions transpired twice in the current cycle: once when BTC first broke out above its all-time high in March 2024 and again during the November rally.
The long-term holder cost basis (blue) is $24,896. Because of the ongoing BTC price decline, the average LTH is less than 350% in profit (black circle).
In previous cycles, a fall below this level after a period of LTH selling confirmed the bear market had started.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
