Why is Bitcoin Down Today? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has fallen since its all-time high on July 14.
Bitcoin is in the final portion of a three-year bull market.
Does the BTC price have enough strength to reach a new all-time high?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a slow decline since hitting its all-time high on July 14.
While the recent dip has sparked concern, the technical setup points more toward a healthy correction than the beginning of a long-term downtrend.
Let’s dive into the charts to see what could be next for Bitcoin as we move through the rest of 2025.
Why is Bitcoin’s Price Down Today?
Bitcoin is on shaky ground after dropping for the third straight week, sliding over 6% from its all-time high.
While Donald Trump’s tariff announcement accelerated this week’s sell-off, the downtrend was already in motion well before the news hit.
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Earlier today, BTC dipped to $114,322, its lowest level since the explosive rally on July 7. It briefly swept last week’s lows before bouncing slightly.
A key concern is Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the 1.27 Fibonacci extension resistance at $119,026.
Still, all is not lost. The longer-term ascending support trend line remains intact, meaning the broader uptrend hasn’t yet been broken.
With BTC now hovering just above that support line, a decisive bounce could be in play, so long as bulls defend it.
Additionally, momentum indicators have not generated any bearish divergence, which almost always happens at the top of bull markets and leads to a bearish trend reversal.
The absence of a bearish divergence makes it more likely that the drop is just a temporary correction, but is not the start of a long-term bear market.
Current Bitcoin Price
The short-term analysis also leans toward a temporary setback rather than a bearish trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s decrease since the all-time high is contained inside a descending parallel channel, a sign of a corrective decrease.
Today’s sweep of the lows and retest of the channel’s support trend line bodes well for the future movement of the Bitcoin price.
However, not all is well. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) created bearish divergences at the top (orange).
Moreover, they did not invalidate those divergences with subsequent hidden ones, which is common in corrections.
So, whether the correction is over or if BTC will fall again and break down from the channel is unclear.
What Lies Ahead?
One thing is clear when looking at the wave count: Bitcoin is in the fifth and final wave of its upward movement that started in November 2022.
However, the exact shape of the structure has yet to be revealed.
Because of the Bitcoin price hesitancy, which will likely create a blow-off top in wave five, an ending diagonal for the cycle top becomes the most likely future scenario.
If this is the case, the BTC price is completing sub-wave four, after which it will begin the final portion of its rally.
The wave count gives a maximum Bitcoin price target of $146,354, giving wave five the same length as wave three.
Then, the Bitcoin price will begin a lengthy bear market.
While the parabolic series of 1-2/1-2 formations outlined previously remains valid, the Bitcoin price has to immediately start an upward movement for that to remain in play.
Finally Rally
Bitcoin remains in the fifth and final wave of its multi-year bull market and has potential for another upward move.
While short-term indicators show mixed signals, the intact support structure and absence of major bearish divergences hint that the correction could soon end.
While another high is likely, Bitcoin’s failure to begin a parabolic price movement has dampened its long-term prediction.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
