The Road Ahead for Bitcoin | Credit: Veronica Cestari
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin (BTC) trades close to its all-time high of $111,980.
Its performance since the 2021 high is on par with previous cycles.
HashKey Capital discusses what lies ahead for the crypto market this year.
HashKey Capital is a leading institutional investor in digital assets with over $1 billion in assets under management. The firm was one of the first proponents of Ethereum and continues offering insights into digital asset markets.
In an exclusive conversation with CCN, Xu Han, Director of the Liquid Fund at HashKey Capital, discusses what’s behind Bitcoin’s rally, macroeconomic conditions in 2025, and the importance of institutional investment in shaping the cycle.
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Xu Han, the director of the Liquid Fund at HashKey Capital, suggests that the end of central bank balance sheet reductions is the most critical macroeconomic signal supporting a Bitcoin bull run.
According to Han, the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) will conclude quantitative tightening this year, setting the stage for another liquidity increase.
This transition matters because cryptocurrencies demonstrate extraordinary sensitivity to global liquidity changes—our research shows crypto assets exhibit betas exceeding 8.5 to global money supply fluctuations, far outpacing traditional asset classes.
Han noted that the spike in the cost of borrowing in the U.S. repurchase markets is similar to the one in 2019, which forced the Fed into action.
Han believed Bitcoin can reach market capitalization parity with investable gold, leading to a price range between $720,000 and $1.12 million in 2035.
Investable gold currently represents 25% of the total gold market (~$5.6T). We project this will rise to 30% of global reserves over the next decade due to growing geopolitical risks and unsustainable U.S. debt—requiring central banks to buy over 30M ounces annually.
Our model, factoring in reserve flows and money supply growth, yields two outcomes:
Base case (10% CAGR): Gold reaches $15T by 2035 while Bitcoin reaches $722K
Bull case (15% CAGR): Gold hits $22.7T while Bitcoin reaches $1.12M
Finally, Han discussed institutional flows, praising their evolution from simple spot buying to sophisticated strategies such as Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) futures and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) yields.
Unlike the retail-driven manias of the past, today’s institutional-driven rally is more patient, risk-managed, and data-driven, contributing to the lack of volatility.
What’s Next for Altcoins
Han settled on Ethereum and Solana when asked about his top altcoin picks.
Despite its underperformance relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum has over 80% of the market share in asset tokenization.
The recent Pectra upgrade and the surge in Layer-2 activity can be the main catalysts for the rally.
Liquid staking protocols present compelling high-beta opportunities on Ethereum’s security layer. Lido and EigenLayer collectively command tens of billions in total value locked, with their yield-generation capabilities becoming increasingly attractive as real rates decline. These protocols benefit directly from the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.
Solana has also shown resilience, evidenced by more than $2 billion in DeFi inflows and numerous partnerships.
Finally, when asked about the different strategies professional investors employ compared to retail investors, Han highlighted ETF-futures basis trades, staking, and restaking.
Moreover, sophisticated investors leverage protocols like EigenLayer for compounding yields, something retail investors miss.
Charts Confirm Thesis
While the Bitcoin price has increased significantly in the current cycle, it has not had any parabolic phase.
Well-known trader Zerohedge noted on X that if Bitcoin follows its fractal with M2, it will go parabolic as soon as the current consolidation ends.
An interesting comparison arises when viewing the Bitcoin performance since the previous cycle’s all-time high.
Interestingly, balances have been falling steadily since July 2024 (red circle).
While this has already led to an increase, it pales compared to the previous ones. So, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s bull run has room to run in 2025.
Bitcoin in 2025
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s rise in this cycle results from shifting macro liquidity trends, evolving institutional strategies, and a maturing asset class.
HashKey Capital’s projections include a long-term $1M+ Bitcoin price target. The projections rest on a thesis of global liquidity expansion and increasing parity with gold.
Altcoins like Ethereum and Solana are poised to benefit from new narratives: Ethereum’s dominance in asset tokenization and staking yield strategies, and Solana’s growing DeFi ecosystem and real-world partnerships.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
