No resistance. Tightening supply. Record ETF inflows. Is Bitcoin’s next stop $120K… or $172K? | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
BTC’s surge to a new all-time high was fueled by low selling pressure and substantial accumulation.
Michaël van de Poppe and Bitwise’s Matt Hougan project BTC could reach $250,000 and $200,000.
CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have fallen to their lowest level since 2015.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $118,856 on Wednesday, setting another all-time high just a day after clearing $112,000.
The latest move comes amid renewed institutional interest and a wave of inflows into spot ETFs.
Far from showing signs of exhaustion, the asset has continued to accelerate with over $500 million liquidated in the last 24 hours.
On-chain data shows rising accumulation and thinning exchange reserves—signals that demand is outpacing supply. If the trend holds, analysts say Bitcoin could be entering a new price discovery phase.
What’s driving this latest move, and how much higher can it go? Here’s what we know.
Bitcoin New Supply, Old Demand
Bitcoin’s price reached this level due to a lack of selling pressure from holders making huge profits. According to data from Glassnode, the supply change for the Long-Term Holder (LTH) is higher than the monthly issuance.
Outpacing new coin issuance indicates that these holders are unwilling to sell their coins amid escalating volatility. But it does not end there.
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A thorough on-chain analysis shows that institutional investors are not the only ones accumulating. Retail participants, who have been mostly on the sidelines, have also joined the party.
Due to this, Bitcoin’s price has refrained from sliding below the $100,000 psychological zone, as shown in the image below.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply vs Issuance | Credit: Glassnode
“Currently, the combined balance growth across these groups is increasing at a pace of +19.3k BTC/month, overwhelming the current monthly issuance rate of +13.4k BTC/month. This adds another layer of evidence supporting the view that supply-side conditions are tightening, as a wide base of holders continues to absorb newly issued supply,” The on-chain analytic platform noted.
Wall Street Still In
Like it happened on several occasions when BTC hit a record high, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also greatly impacted the price. Though net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have cooled lately, the Asset Under Management (AUM) soared to a new all-time high of $137 billion.
This hike means the ETFs constitute nearly 7% of the total Bitcoin market cap. Besides, the growing share of supply absorbed by regulated, professionally managed investment vehicles indicates a key trend —crypto assets are steadily weaving into the fabric of traditional financial infrastructure.
Should this continue, Bitcoin’s price might break past $120,000 as time goes on. On X, several crypto analysts opined that BTC might trade higher.
Next Stop: New Heights
For instance, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, said the $110,500 support could drive the coin toward $150,000 before this quarter ends.
“Beautiful breakout upwards on Bitcoin. It broke $110,500, found immediate support and continues to rally towards new ATHs. What’s next? Likely we’ll see $150K in Q3,” van de Popped noted.
Later, he extended his prediction, saying that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of Q4. He, however, noted that the coin might need to clear $125,000 first and experience consolidation before this happens.
Furthermore, on-chain analysis from IntoTheBlock shows that Bitcoin’s price has strong support levels to keep it above $100,000. The In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) shows that several buy wall exists around $106,392 and $108,840.
BTC In/Out of Money Around Price | Credit: IntoTheBlock
Since no major resistance is forthcoming, the cryptocurrency might evade a notable correction in the short term. CryptoQuant also supports this outlook, noting that exchange inflow, which could lead to selling pressure, has fallen.
“Exchange inflows dropped to just 18K BTC/day, the lowest since 2015. That’s a 78% decline from the $100K breakout in November. Holders aren’t rushing to sell,” It disclosed.
At the same time, market participants will want to know how high Bitcoin can go.
BTC Price Prediction: $172K Possible
To assess Bitcoin’s price prediction for this run, CCN looked at the Pi Cycle Top — a metric provided by Glassnode.
The Pi Cycle Indicator — a tool closely watched by crypto analysts — consists of two key moving averages: the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) and a 2x multiple of the 350-day simple moving average (350SMA × 2).
This indicator identifies when an asset may be entering overheated territory. Specifically, a potential market top is signaled when the shorter-term 111SMA approaches or crosses the longer-term multiple.
However, the shorter 111 SMA has yet to break above the 350 SMA at press time. A closer look at the chart shows a prediction that the Bitcoin price might rally to $172,36 before it hits the top.
The metric also shows support at $98,0005. Therefore, a prolonged correction might occur if Bitcoin’s price drops below this support.
At the same time, traders might need to watch for Bitcoin’s dominance. As it stands, the rise in BTC could trigger capital rotation into other assets. Should that happen, Bitcoin’s price might struggle to break above $150,000.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
