When Will the Bitcoin Price Bottom? | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin (BTC) bounced after three consecutive bearish weeks.
The Bitcoin price trades 11% below its all-time high today.
How much further will BTC keep going down until it bottoms?
After weeks of steady pressure, Bitcoin (BTC) has taken a hit, slipping further from its all-time high.
The pullback has traders asking: Is this the start of a deeper correction, or just another shakeout before the next leg up?
With the price now flirting with a drop below $110,000, the coming week could set the tone for the rest of the year.
Will Bitcoin Keep Going Down?
Bitcoin has increased by 700% from bottom to top in the current cycle, reaching an all-time high price of $124,474 in August.
Unlike past cycles, the increase has not been parabolic.
Instead, several notable upward and downward movements have occurred, creating a gradual pattern of higher highs and lows.
Since August 2024, when Bitcoin began its ascent, eventually taking it above $100,000, the move has been shaped like an ascending wedge, warning that the cycle is ending.
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Momentum indicators show apparent weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have created bearish divergences in the weekly time frame.
The latter has made a bearish cross (black circle), adding to the bearishness. Historically, when this happened in unison with the RSI divergence, it marked the start of the bear market.
Several signs of weakness have emerged, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price is nearing the end of its cycle.
However, what remains to be determined is whether there will be another upward movement this cycle or whether the Bitcoin price has reached its market cycle top.
According to the wave count, another final high remains. While Bitcoin is in the fifth and final wave (orange) of its upward movement, it still needs to complete sub-wave five (orange).
Let’s examine a lower time frame to see what will happen the rest of September.
Technical indicators do not help either side. The RSI and MACD are increasing but still below their bullish thresholds of 50 and 0, respectively.
Because of these mixed signs, the daily time frame price action and indicators are inconclusive as to whether Bitcoin’s trend is bullish or bearish.
What Happened to Bitcoin Today?
Bitcoin’s most probable path for September will lead to more downsides.
The most likely count suggests that Bitcoin’s price is currently finishing wave X in a W-X-Y correction (red), which has been ongoing since the all-time high.
Wave X created a symmetrical triangle, and the sub-wave count is shown in black. The sub-wave count is finished, and the BTC price has started wave Y.
Using the 1:1 and 1:0.618 proportions between waves W and Y leads to a Bitcoin low of $102,100 and $96,300 for the end of the correction.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
