Will Bitcoin Bottom Soon? Here's What the On-Chain Indicators Say
Share
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s (BTC) Hash Ribbon indicator is showing miner capitulation.
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shows short-term capitulation.
Will Bitcoin reach a bottom soon, or will the decline continue?
Bitcoin is flashing major on-chain stress signals again as both miners and short-term holders enter a state of capitulation.
With the Hash Ribbon indicator turning bearish and the Short-Term Holder (STH) NUPL dropping into negative territory, investors are closely watching for clues about the next Bitcoin prediction.
These metrics have historically appeared just before major market bottoms, but they also warn that the decline may not be finished yet.
Hash Ribbon Indicator
The Hash Ribbon is an on-chain indicator used to gauge the health of Bitcoin’s mining ecosystem by comparing the operating costs of miners with the rewards they earn.
When mining becomes unprofitable, some miners shut off their machines, a phase known as miner capitulation.
Get These Top Crypto Casino Offers Now!
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
On the chart, light and dark red zones highlight these stress periods, with darker shades signaling deeper capitulation.
This typically occurs when the 30-day hash rate moving average falls below the 60-day average, forming a bearish cross that signals increasing pressure on miners.
Capitulation is considered over once those same moving averages flip back into a bullish cross.
However, capitulation can last for several months, meaning that the actual bottom may not be reached until later in December or even January 2026.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders Capitulate
The STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator tracks the sentiment and positioning of short-term Bitcoin holders by showing whether they’re sitting on gains or losses.
With Bitcoin now trading below the STH realized price, it’s evident that this group has already slipped into negative territory.
Currently, the STH NUPL stands at -0.12, indicating that short-term holders are down roughly 12 percent on average.
In this cycle, the Bitcoin price bottomed after the second time the STH NUPL fell.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
