Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s (BTC) Hash Ribbon indicator has given a bullish signal.
- Bitcoin miner revenue is still low and nowhere near previous market cycle tops.
- What can Bitcoin mining indicators tell us about the Bitcoin cycle top?
Bitcoin’s miners are sending a signal that the current cycle is far from over.
From the Hash Ribbon to miner revenue data, these on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin has not hit its cycle top yet.
On the contrary, if history repeats, BTC could have significant explosive upside ahead.
Hash Ribbon Indicator
The Hash Ribbon is an on-chain metric that measures Bitcoin’s mining costs and rewards.
Simply put, miners capitulate when costs outweigh rewards, shutting down operations.
On the chart, light and dark red zones illustrate these periods, depending on whether the capitulation is severe.
When the 30-day hash rate moving average (MA) drops below the 60-day one, it creates a bearish cross and marks the beginning of capitulation.
Afterward, a bullish cross from these same MAs confirms that the capitulation has ended.
Historically, miner capitulation has led to significant rallies, though delays are sometimes observed before the rally.
- BTC Hash Ribbon | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/Glassnode
The most recent capitulation ended in July, and the Bitcoin price has yet to move upward.
While such a delay is not uncommon, it is longer than the average time it usually takes for a rally to start.
Hence, for the signal to remain valid, the BTC price has to begin an upward movement soon.
Miner Revenue From Fees
An interesting way to predict cycle tops has been to use a Z score on Miner Revenue fees.
Historically, revenue from fees crosses five standard deviations (red) and stays there for a prolonged period of time.
The revenue briefly surged at the beginning of 2024, when the BTC price was going to its first all-time high above $60,000.
- BTC Miner Revenue | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/Glassnode
However, fees have been extremely low since November 2024, which has historically occurred in bear markets and is not near cycle tops.
Hence, if this indicator is anything to go by, the BTC price has yet to begin the parabolic phase of its upward movement.
Cycle Not Over
The Hash Ribbon’s bullish signal and the historically low miner revenue point to one thing: the Bitcoin bull cycle has not yet ended.
While the short-term delay has shaken out some weak hands, these mining metrics suggest the strongest phase of the rally is still to come.
If history repeats, Bitcoin’s parabolic rally is just around the corner.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
