Bitcoin holders face biggest losses since FTX | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s realized losses spike, signaling major capitulation by weak hands.
The Puell Multiple drop suggests a bottom is forming, with more downside possible.
BTC risks drop to $85,000, but recovery toward $94,500 remains likely as well.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price might have experienced a brief recovery during the week. But the recent decline might hint at widespread capitulation.
This is because Bitcoin’s realized losses have rocketed to a point unseen since the FTX disaster of 2022.
One can’t deny that selling has intensified. But what does this imply for Bitcoin’s price in the short term?
Let’s find out.
Bitcoin Weak Hands Drive Pullback
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s recent drawdown has triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in late 2022.
The surge in losses highlights how aggressively holders have been capitulating during the downturn.
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Short-Term Holders (STHs), who typically buy near local tops and are more sensitive to volatility, account for the majority of these realized losses.
In contrast, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) exhibit comparatively limited losses, suggesting that they remain steady and are not significantly contributing to the sell-off.
This distinction suggests that the current market stress is concentrated primarily among recent buyers. However, more experienced holders appear to be maintaining their conviction despite the pullback.
Despite LTH potentially providing support, the infamous FTX contagion did not result in a bounce.
What makes the current cycle notable is that the downturn occurred without the Puell Multiple reaching its previous trend peak, which was near 2.
Instead, it reversed in the 1.2 to 1.4 region, indicating that miner-driven overheating was significantly less pronounced compared to earlier bull phases.
As a result, Bitcoin’s price is likely to trade at a low level. Also, an extreme capitulation event, such as a crash into the 0.3 range, might occur in the coming year.
Analysts Split on BTC Potential
Furthermore, some crypto analysts expect BTC’s price to experience rejection. One of them is pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital, who said he expects a pullback.
“Bitcoin continues to reject from the Range High resistance And as long as the rejection is shallower than the previous two, then this resistance will continue to weaken until eventually breached Technically, Bitcoin could drop into the Higher Low (blue) or even revisit the Range Low and still perform a shallower pullback compared to the preceding -10% drop,” The analyst opined.
However, analyst Ted Pillows offered a different perspective, suggesting that the liquidity clusters forming around Bitcoin could help trigger a reversal.
“Bitcoin has 2 decent liquidity clusters right now. The upside liquidity is around the $94,500 level, while the downside liquidity is around the $90,000 level,” Pillows highlighted.
BTC Price Prediction: What’s Ahead?
Examining on-chain data again, the Pi Cycle Top indicator indicates that Bitcoin’s price has now fallen below the 111-day Moving Average (MA).
This position signals a weakening of short- to mid-term momentum after the recent drawdown.
Historically, dips below the 111-day MA during corrective phases align with periods of consolidation or pullbacks before the market regains strength.
While not a direct bearish signal, this development reinforces the notion that BTC is currently in a cooling phase and may require additional time to stabilize.
Should this trend persist, Bitcoin’s price risks declining below $85,000 in the near future.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
