Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Price Faces $400 Test After 50% Surge

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin Cash (BCH) broke down from an ascending support trend line.
• The BCH price has validated it as resistance in three consecutive weeks.
• Will BCH reclaim this support level or fall after another rejection?

Bitcoin Cash bounced in April, creating a large bullish candlestick and preventing a breakdown below the $300 horizontal support area.

While the bounce increased optimism for a bullish trend reversal, the price has struggled to reclaim a long-term ascending support trend line.

After three consecutive rejections, will BCH finally break out this week? Let’s find out.

BCH Price Rejection

The BCH technical analysis shows that the price has fallen since its cycle high of $719.43 in April 2024.

The price created a slightly lower high in December and accelerated its downward movement afterward.

In February, BCH broke down from a long-term ascending support trend line, a sign its upward movement had ended.

While Bitcoin Cash was resilient by reclaiming the $300 horizontal support area, BCH has consistently failed to reclaim the trend line (red icons).

Bitcoin Cash must close above the diagonal support to confirm that it has started a bullish trend reversal.

Technical indicators are at critical levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 50 from below, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is close to making a bullish cross (red icons).

So, a BCH price rejection will likely cause similar rejections in these indicators, while reclaiming support would be a bullish catalyst.

Let’s look at a lower time frame and determine which is more likely.

What’s Next for BCH?

The daily time frame wave count shows BCH has completed a five-wave decline (red), shaped as a leading diagonal.

BCH broke out from its descending wedge after the RSI and MACD created bullish divergences (orange), legitimizing the breakout.

However, the breakout has become an ascending wedge, likely wave A in an A-B-C corrective structure.

If the count is accurate, wave A will end at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance level near $400.

Afterward, BCH could begin a corrective wave B before another upward movement.

Therefore, the daily time frame suggests BCH will reach a local top soon, and the price will not reclaim the long-term diagonal support trend line.

Local Top Close

The Bitcoin Cash price has failed to reclaim an ascending support trend line for the past three weeks.

Despite a short-term breakout, the wave count suggests a local top is close.

As a result, the most likely BCH price prediction is a rejection near $400, followed by a downward movement.