Bitcoin (BTC) Price up 16%, but Signs of Weakness Appear After October Rally

Key Takeaways

• BTC dropped below $50,000 but rebounded above $54,000.
• Resistance was confirmed at $61,400, leading to a pullback.
• Overbought RSI hints at a limited upside before a potential correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced notable volatility since reaching its all-time high in March, with several key resistance and support interactions.

As the current corrective phase nears its end, Bitcoin’s next move could define the direction of its long-term trend.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

After reaching its all-time high of $73,770 in mid-March, Bitcoin has been moving within a descending channel.

On Aug.5, it dropped below $50,000 before quickly rebounding to close the daily candle above $54,000, signaling a potential bullish phase.

However, this was invalidated as BTC failed to form a five-wave pattern.

On Sept. 6, BTC revisited the $53,000 area to test for support, leading to another rise to $61,400. There, it met descending resistance for the third time, confirming this level on Sept. 13.

After a slight pullback, the price continued moving to the upside, reaching a high of $66,516 on Sept. 28. 

A downturn followed as a retest of the broken resistance for support at $59,300 on Oct. 10. another interaction with the ascending support resulted in a bounce and another higher high of $69,470 yesterday, Oct. 20. 

Although we saw a 16% rise in October alone, Bitcoin’s price is still in an overall corrective structure. The daily chart RSI reached the overbought zone at 70% of yesterday’s high, indicating that the upside room is limited. 

If the price drops, it could lead to lower values than in September. The main question is whether or not its correction starting from March ended as a WXY on Aug. 5 or will be prolonged by two more waves, ending as a WXYXZ. 

BTC Price Prediction 

Analyzing the wave structure, we can see that there is a chance BTC entered a new bull phase on Aug. 5, as the proceeding ascending channel could be counted as a five-wave pattern.

Considering the overlapping waves, it could only be a leading diagonal if true. 

However, a downturn is expected as it reaches the ascending resistance and shows signs of weakness. We will determine how likely the bullish outlook is from its momentum and strength.

If the price finds support above 0.618 Fib level at $56,750 and increases again, it could imply BTC is headed to a new all-time high next. 

But if it continues below, the chance of Bitcoin going below its August 5 level would be higher.