Bitcoin’s push to $98,000 confirmed as a bear market trap | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin broke below $90,000, confirming the recent move toward $95,500 was a bear-market rally.
Heavy liquidations, ETF outflows, and exchange inflows show that selling pressure is strengthening.
Unless Bitcoin’s price quickly reclaims $91,000, the next downside target is near $80,000.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price finally lost the $90,000 psychological support and slid to an intraday low near $89,440 earlier today,
This development confirmed that the earlier push toward $95,500 was not a trend reversal but a classic bear-market rally.
Once the $90,000 level snapped, selling accelerated. Liquidations surged again, topping $525 million in the past 24 hours. Combined with the $870 million wipeout on Jan. 19, total liquidations now approach $1.4 billion in just three days.
Bitcoin Drops Following Fakeout
Besides the price decline, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows flipped hard.
After raising roughly $1.2 billion in the first two days of 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned negative. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw more than $860 million in net outflows on Tuesday.
Geopolitics continues to fuel the fire as the US–Europe rift widens fast. More importantly, it appears that CryptoQuant’s view that the previous breakout was a bear-market rally was correct.
On Jan. 16, the on-chain analytics platform published an analysis that the Bitcoin price surge was not something to be glad about.
“The recent Bitcoin price rebound fits the historical profile of a bear market rally, with Bitcoin up ~21% since Nov 21 after a ~19% drawdown that confirmed a bear market by breaking below the 365-day moving average (MA)—a pattern closely resembling the 2022 cycle, where rallies ultimately failed at the same level,” CryptoQuant opined.
Before that, market participants had called for BTC to retest $100,000. Unfortunately, that did not happen.
The blue bars represent the 30-day realized net profit or loss, while the black line shows Bitcoin’s price.
When the bars are above zero, the market is realizing net profits. When they fall below zero, more coins are being sold at a loss.
During strong uptrends, the chart consistently shows large positive profit spikes. You can see this clearly during the major upside phases in 2024 and early 2025, when profit realization surged as prices rose.
Those spikes usually mark distribution phases, not immediate tops, but they do signal that selling pressure is increasing as gains are locked in.
The most important part of the current chart is the recent drop toward zero and slightly negative territory. This means profit-taking has largely dried up, and the market has begun to realize losses again.
Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss | Credit: CryptoQuant
Crucially, the losses are not extreme compared to prior bear-market flushes.
In practical terms, this chart suggests Bitcoin is moving from a profit-dominated phase into a cooling and rebalancing phase.
As such, selling pressure from profit-takers may soon ease. Despite that, it does not imply that Bitcoin’s price will soon test the $100,000 psychological level.
Another BTC Warning Comes Up
However, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe offered a different take. He argued that Bitcoin’s sharp drop may have little to do with Trump or the EU standoff.
Instead, he pointed to stress in the Japanese bond market. According to van de Poppe, the recent spike in yields and volatility there has triggered a broader risk-off response
“This current collapse on the markets has, in my opinion, closer to zero percent to do with Trump and Greenland, honestly. It has everything to do with the current collapse on the Japanese bond markets,” van de Poppe explained.
As of this writing, the market has seen a violent sell-off, with yields spiking to multi-decade highs.This has been triggered by a combination of aggressive new fiscal policies and a poorly received debt auction.
All eyes now turn to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as its meeting later this week could also impact Bitcoin’s price.
The BoJ faces a brutal choice. If it intervenes, it would likely restart aggressive bond buying. That move could calm yields in the short term.
However, it would also mean more money printing, which risks sending the yen sharply lower and spreading volatility across global markets, including crypto markets.
The other option is just as dangerous. If the BoJ raises rates to fight inflation and defend the yen, bond prices would likely fall even further.
In the meantime, the Bitcoin exchange netflow shows an increase in coins flowing into exchanges.
As the BTC price pushed toward local highs in mid-January, the pattern flipped. Deep red bars emerged, showing heavy outflows from exchanges exactly as the price peaked.
More recently, green bars have reappeared while the price has fallen. That is a significant shift.
It shows that as the price pulls back, BTC is once again flowing into exchanges. If sustained, this could drive Bitcoin’s price lower in the short term.
BTC Price Analysis: Lower Lows
The technical picture has also deteriorated.
As seen below, Bitcoin’s price trades near $89,100 on the daily chart and remains under corrective pressure.
The previous rebound attempt stalled below the 0.382 retracement level at around $97,800, which has acted as a ceiling and confirmed that sellers remain in control.
Since then, price has drifted lower and slipped back below the 0.236 level near $91,200, weakening the short-term structure.
In addition, the price action is now compressed inside a shallow rising wedge that formed during consolidation.
This structure often appears late in corrective bounces, and the recent breakdown from its upper boundary reinforces the bearish bias.
Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has rolled over into a bearish crossover, and the histogram has flipped negative, showing downside momentum is rebuilding.
At the same time, holder sentiment has turned negative again after briefly improving, which indicates confidence faded quickly as the price failed to follow through.
From here, Bitcoin’s price is approaching a critical support zone between 88,000 and 90,000. Holding this area could still allow for range stabilization.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
