Bitcoin (BTC) Gains 7% in September, Key Level Needed for Bullish Confirmation

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has broken out from a symmetrical triangle.
• It needs to move above $65,103 to confirm the correction is over.
• Will BTC confirm its reversal, and what’s the next target if it does?

Bitcoin (BTC) increased since Aug. 5, creating a higher low in September. The price accelerated its increase, and it is attempting to create a higher high. If so, it will be the first higher high since March.

Will Bitcoin finally end its six-month consolidation, and what are the potential targets if it does?

Bitcoin’s Fractal

Bitcoin’s price has decreased inside a descending parallel channel since its all-time high of $73,777 on March 13. The decrease has been contained inside a descending parallel channel, which often means the movement is corrective.

After three bounces at the channel’s support trend line (white icons), the price of BTC started an upward movement and currently trades in the channel’s upper portion, making an eventual breakout more likely.

Interestingly, BTC has created long lower wicks each time it reaches the channel’s support trend line, signifying buying pressure. However, the same has not happened with the channel’s resistance trend line (black icons).

Also, the three most recent bounces at support were combined with a bullish divergence in the three-day RSI (green).

Read More: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024: BTC Price Analysis

A nearly identical movement transpired from August 2022 to January 2023 before Bitcoin started the upward movement. At the time, BTC bounced four times at the channel’s support trend line and eventually created a bullish divergence.

The main difference between the two movements is that the current channel has been in place for 198 days while the previous one was for 149. So, if a breakout happens, the upward movement could be even more violent than the one in 2023.

What Analysts Are Saying?

Most analysts on X have a bullish view of the future BTC trend. IamCryptoWolf predicts  that BTC has begun the final portion of its parabolic upward movement that will lead to a high near 150,000, reached in the final quarter of 2025.

Eljaboom also believes  that the price has started an increase toward $200,000.

TrendSpider noted  that the main level to watch is $65,000, and a breakout above it will confirm that the trend of lower lows and lower highs is over.

Some contrarian bearish views exist, such as Follis’s  prediction of another downward movement toward the channel’s support trend line.

Interestingly, Zoran Kole , one of the most prominent bears during the recent movement, has deactivated his X account.

Bitcoin’s Key Level

The most likely wave count suggests that BTC has completed a W-X-Y correction structure that started with an all-time high in March. If this is the case, the correction ended with a symmetrical triangle on

To confirm the reversal, the BTC price has to move above the sub-wave B high (red) at $65,103. So, Bitcoin may be still in sub-wave D until it clears this level.

However, this would be unusual since BTC has already broken out from the triangle.

If the short-term reversal is confirmed, it will mean that BTC has started the fifth and final wave in its upward movement that started in Nov. 2022. If so, the most likely target for the top of the wave is between $88,950 and $93,050.

The target is created by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four and by giving wave five 0.618 times the length of waves one and three combined.

However, wave five may extend. In that case, the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high of $115,400, giving wave five the same length as waves one and three combined.

Bitcoin All-Time High Could Be Soon

The Bitcoin price shows positive signs in the weekly and daily time frames. Despite the ongoing upward movement, Bitcoin needs to break the $65,100 level to confirm its bullish trend reversal. If this happens, the price can reach a new all-time high near $90,000 and potentially even move to $115,000.

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About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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