Bitcoin (BTC) Price on Track for Upside Before Month’s End if Halving History Repeats

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) began its 2020 increase 161 days after the halving.
• A similar movement would lead to a Bitcoin increase next week.
• Is Bitcoin’s previous halving history poised to repeat?

The Bitcoin (BTC) price has fallen since its all-time high of $73,777 on March 14. The decrease has been gradual, with the price falling less than 20% in 187 days.

Also, BTC bounced sharply on Aug. 5, creating a higher low on Sept. 6.

With this in mind, let’s look at Bitcoin’s previous halving history and see if any similarities arise that would help determine the trend for the rest of 2024.

Bitcoin’s Halving Movement

The third Bitcoin halving was on May 11, 2020, while the fourth and most recent halving occurred on April 20, 2024. In 2020, the BTC price increased almost immediately after its halving.

After pausing temporarily in August, it resumed its upward movement in September (white arrow), beginning a parabolic increase by creating several successive bullish weekly candlesticks. The upward movement started 160 days after the halving.

Well-known crypto analyst TheCryptoLark noted  this occurrence and pointed out that there have been 151 days since the fourth Bitcoin halving.

In the current cycle, the BTC price had already begun a downtrend before the halving, which deepened afterward. However, BTC seemingly reversed its trend in August and created a higher low in September.

If previous history is followed, BTC will begin its upward movement next week, 161 days after the halving, depending on which day of the week it begins.

Let’s look at the price movement and see if this is likely to happen.

Bitcoin Completes Correction

The wave count aligns with the halving fractal since it suggests the wave four correction will end soon. According to the count, BTC started a five-wave increase in November 2022 and will soon begin the fifth and final wave.

Wave four developed into a complex W-X-Y correction (black), where sub-wave Y created a symmetrical triangle (yellow).

If this is accurate, there will be one last dip before the Bitcoin price begins its final increase.

The first target for the top of the increase is $88,950. The 1.61 external retracement of wave four creates this target. However, this would mean that wave five is the shortest out of the bullish wave.

While not invalid, this is unusual since wave five often has the same length as wave one. If that happens instead, BTC can reach a high of $112,717 before correcting.

Finally, Bitcoin news is also positive. MicroStrategy announced  the private offering of $700 million in notes to purchase more BTC, adding to its $14 billion in current holdings.

Additionally, data from Arkham Intelligence  shows that after a recent purchase, the Kingdom of Bhutan currently holds roughly $750 million in BTC.

Bitcoin Above $110,000

A fractal comparing the previous Bitcoin halving to the current one suggests that the BTC price will soon begin a parabolic rally.

The wave count agrees with this hypothesis, predicting that the correction will end next week. The first two targets for this potential upward movement are at $88,950 and $112,717.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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