Bitcoin (BTC) Stagnates Below $100K, but a Breakout Looks Imminent
When Will Bitcoin Break $100,000? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) trades less than 2% below $100,000.
- The BTC price increased by over 40% in November.
- What’s the next target for this BTC upward movement?
The Bitcoin price has increased parabolically since breaking out from a long-term channel in November. So far, it has increased by 40%, culminating with a new all-time high price of $99,800 on Nov. 22. Bitcoin is attempting to move above $100,000 again after a slight decline.
During this increase, the BTC price has suffered virtually no long-term pullbacks. How long will the BTC price increase continue without any corrections? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin’s Monthly Fractal
The monthly time frame of the Bitcoin chart shows an interesting pattern in both previous market cycles. In November 2016, the monthly RSI crossed above 70 and triggered the most parabolic phase of the bull run. This continued for 395 days, leading to a 2,500% price increase and a $19,764 all-time high price in December 2017.
A similar event occurred in October 2020. After the monthly RSI crossed above 70, the BTC price increased by 563% over 396 days, culminating in a new all-time high of $68,944 in November 2021.
In the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s RSI exceeded 70 in October. This will create a 396-day upward movement if the previous history is followed, leading to a market cycle top in November 2025.
The magnitude of the 2020/2021 upward movement was 4.46 times smaller than the 2016-207 one. If the ratio holds, the BTC price will increase by 125%, leading to a high of $140,000.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The daily time frame wave count shows a parabolic Bitcoin increase since Aug. 5 (white icon). The upward movement follows a parabolic ascending support trend line.
According to the wave count, the BTC price is in minor sub-wave five (yellow) of sub-wave three (black), with a target near $110,000. The target is found by the 3.61 extension of sub-wave three (black) and by giving minor sub-wave five 0.618 times the length of minor sub-waves one and three.
After the high, the BTC price could complete sub-wave four and reach the parabolic support trend line again. Afterward, a likely area for the top of sub-wave five is at $125,250, created by the 4.61 extension of sub-wave one.
Finally, the long-term count suggests that BTC is in the fifth and final wave of its increase (red). Since wave five has extended, as seen by the numerous sub-wave and minor-sub-wave formations in lower time frames.
The first target for the top of the movement is $145,110. This will give wave five 1.61 times the length of waves one and three combined. The target fits with that found by the monthly chart and RSI. Afterward, the BTC price could undergo a lengthy correction.
Bitcoin Above $100,000
The daily and weekly time frame wave counts suggest the upward movement is not over. The first target for a new BTC all-time high and local top is at $110,000, while one for the top of the medium-term increase is at $125,250.
The monthly chart and long-term wave count both predict that the entire bullish market cycle could end near $140,000. As the upward movement develops, a more accurate target can be determined.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Increases 30% in November — $110,000 Within Reach
