Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s price has increased rapidly since Nov. 4, culminating with a new all-time high of $91,827 at the time of writing. In the previous two days, the price increased by over 10%.
The rally has had no pullbacks, creating one bullish candlestick after another. Because of this, let’s analyze the price action in different time frames to see how long BTC can keep this up.
The weekly time frame of the Bitcoin chart shows that upward movement was confirmed, with a breakout from a descending parallel channel in October. Since the channel existed for 217 days, the breakout above it was likely to start a violent move to the upside.
While this did not happen in the first two weeks after the breakout, BTC is creating its second weekly candlestick with a magnitude of over 15%. The current rate of increase has to hold to create this candlestick.
Despite the massive increase, technical indicators have not even been overbought yet. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) just broke out above 70 and is way below its March high of 88.
The indicator reached 94 in the previous cycle and then generated bearish divergence (green) before crashing, neither of which has occurred currently.
The RSI also broke out from its bearish divergence trend line, implying the upward movement will continue.
Bitcoin sentiment on X is euphoric. Willy Woo tweeted that Network flows are still nothing compared to those during the March high. ETF inflows are also increasing, reaching nearly $350 million on Nov. 11. Bitcoin balance on exchanges has hit an all-time low, fueling the ongoing supply shock.
Retired basketball player Scottie Pippen predicted an all-time high of $84,650 BTC on Nov. 5, only six days late. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele simply tweeted, “I told you so,” after purchasing roughly 6,000 BTC over the past four years.
It seems that the only bear standing is CredibleCrypto , who suggests that the increase is corrective and BTC will begin to decline soon, targeting $50,000. This has led to some ridicule from other traders , who ironically say that the current breakout is not a higher high because the weekly close is not in place yet.
Let’s analyze the wave count and see what the next target is.
The long-term wave count shows that BTC is in the fifth and final wave (white) of its upward movement that started in December 2022. If the count is accurate, BTC will reach its market cycle high during the current increase.
The upward movement is going higher than expected, even based on the wave count. BTC has already reached the first target for a possible top between $85,680 and $88,783.
Additionally, the target is reached much faster than predicted by the count since BTC has already moved at the resistance trendline of the long-term channel connecting waves 2, 3, and 4.
Based on the channel, the BTC price was likely to reach the target in March 2025. So, if the price breaks out from the channel, the parabolic increase will likely continue, giving a target of $107,170 – $113,230.
The shorter-term daily wave count shows a series of 1-2/1-2 waves, explaining the current parabolic movement. If the count is accurate, the Bitcoin price is in the most rapid portion of its upward movement, creating the third minor sub-wave (yellow) of sub-wave three (black) of wave three (white).
If this count is accurate, the price of Bitcoin will likely overshoot the $110,000 target and move higher. A local top is still likely at the level, marking the end of either sub-wave or wave three.
The weekly price action and wave count support the ongoing upward movement. Bitcoin sentiment is euphoric.
The long-term wave count gives an average target of $110,000, though the short-term one suggests that BTC can go higher.