After 38% surge, AR retraces — but signs point to more gains ahead | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
AR surged 38% in a week, breaking out of a falling wedge and reaching a 35-day high.
Indicators remain bullish, with CMF above zero and the Bollinger Bands expanding.
Targets lie at $8.67 and potentially $10, but higher-than-expected CPI may invalidate it.
AR, the native token of the decentralized storage network Arweave, has recorded a 38% price surge in the last seven days. But that’s not all.
While the Arweave price has slightly dropped from $7, this analysis reveals that it is only a temporary setback.
Instead of a prolonged correction, AR could be gearing up for the next leg up, possibly backed by the potential impact of Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Arweave Breakout Holds With Strength
Based on the daily chart, AR’s price surged to $7 after it broke out of the upper trendline of a falling wedge. As seen below, the wedge formed after the cryptocurrency hit higher and lower lows between June 11 and 27.
However, at the beginning of July, things changed. With buying pressure increasing, Arweave’s price broke above the overhead resistance and rallied to a 35-day high.
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At press time, the price had retraced to $6.90. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) position indicates that the rally is not over.
In the image below, the CMF reading is above the zero signal line, indicating that bulls are still in control. If this trend continues, the altcoin’s value might break the resistance at $7.51 and $8.67.
Beyond the CMF, the Bollinger Bands (BB) reading also expands, indicating that volatility is increasing. If volatility grows amid rising buying pressure, AR’s price might trade higher soon.
Another factor that could affect Arweave’s price is the June CPI data, which will be released today. Released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, high CPI suggests elevated inflation, which prompts the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates.
On the other hand, a lower-than-expected CPI can lead to expectations of rate cuts, which is bullish for crypto. The expected year-over-year CPI could be between 2.4% and 2.6%.
If it drops, altcoin prices, including AR, could quickly rally. However, higher-than-expected data could do otherwise.
AR Price Prediction: No Sign of Weakness
Zooming into the 4-hour chart, CCN observed a bullish AR setup. As seen below, Arweave’s price has surged above the upper trendline of a descending triangle, turning the bearish pattern into a bullish one.
Amid that, the green segment of the Supertrend is now below the price, indicating that the crypto’s value might break the $7.25 and $7.90 resistance.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) has increased to 44 to support this thesis.52, suggesting strong upward movement. If this setup holds, AR’s price might rally beyond $8.70 and hit $10.
Alternatively, if demand for the token falters, this might not be the case. Arweave’s price might decline toward $5.69 at the 0.786 Fibonacci level in that scenario.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
