Ethereum on-chain metrics flash green, low resistance and high buying pressure | Credit: Derek Fenech
Share
Key Takeaways
The MVRV bands point to a cycle top near $4,900, with ETH trading above critical support.
On-chain data shows ETH is in a healthy profit zone, reducing the risk of mass selling pressure.
With positive technical indicators, ETH could test higher resistance zones starting from $3,745.
Ethereum’s (ETH) price may rise as high as $4,900, according to an on-chain metric that nailed the cryptocurrency’s market value during the last bull market. Recently, ETH cracked $3,000 for the first time since February.
While it has briefly slipped below the area, Ethereum’s price appears not to have reached this cycle’s top. Here’s a breakdown of the key metrics fueling that outlook — and what the market should look out for as ETH navigates the next market cycle phase.
Ethereum Bullish Structure Stays Intact
CCN examined the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands to analyze Ethereum’s price potential this cycle. Provided by Glassnode, the MVRV pricing bands are built on historical valuation thresholds.
These bands represent zones of extreme market sentiment. Typically, high MVRV values indicate periods of excess unrealized profit, while depressed values suggest heavy unrealized losses.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
When Ethereum’s price enters one of these MVRV extremes, it coincides with a shift in behavior, such as profit-taking during overheated phases or capitulation during downturns, helping to define the market cycle top or bottom.
From the chart below, Ethereum’s price has been trading consistently above the 1.0 MVRV level, currently at $2,044. This level represents the threshold where ETH’s market value equals its realized value.
Furthermore, ETH’s price has remained well above this level, suggesting participants are not in loss-heavy territory. As such, there is little pressure for capitulation.
If this support continues, Ethereum could aim for the 2.4 MVRV band, which currently aligns with a price of $4,907.
Supporting the bullish case for Ethereum, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) metric highlights key zones of strong support and weak resistance.
The GIOM tracks current holders’ positions regarding unrealized profits or losses. This helps to identify price levels likely to act as support (high profit concentration) or resistance (high loss concentration).
The data reveals that Ethereum’s price has solid on-chain support between $2,238 and $2,572, where many holders remain in unrealized profit.
On the other hand, the resistance zone between $3,109 and $4,816 appears relatively thin, with fewer addresses sitting on losses.
If this on-chain structure holds and buyer momentum persists, Ethereum could break above $4,900 as initially stated.
Interestingly, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe agrees that ETH’s price might increase, noting that it could capitalize on the Bitcoin recent dip.
“It’s not strange that $ETH has seen a slight pullback on the Bitcoin pair. Bitcoin is going up vertically, so there’s usually a slight correction on Bitcoin pairs. Once Bitcoin stabilizes, they’ll continue to run. ETH to $3,500,” van de Poppe stated.
Another analyst with an optimistic outlook is Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research. According to Young, recent inflows into Ethereum-related investments could help the price increase.
However, he also warns that declining institutional appetite could lead to a correction.
“ETH will need to hold above $2,800 to maintain the current upside movement momentum, but bears are actively defending the $3,070 zone, which caused a rejection from the level. The current pullback below $3,000 suggests profit-taking by short-term buyers, which would need to be offset by a substantial buy-side volume for the rally to continue in the coming days. A decisive break above $3,000 would open the path to $3,150 and $3,400,” Young told CCN.
ETH Price Analysis: Bull Flag Again
From a technical point of view, ETH’s recent rally led to the formation of a bull flag. Amid this bullish pattern, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has risen to the positive region.
The rise in the AO indicates bullish momentum, suggesting that Ethereum’s price might break $3,188 soon.
To add to this bias, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has also risen to 83.10, indicating that buying pressure around the cryptocurrency remains. If this trend continues, ETH’s price might rise to $3,745 before this quarter ends.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
