Bitcoin’s price began to recover from its dip below $25,000 on September 11, quickly surpassing the $30,000 mark and approaching nearly $31,000 today.
Notably, while Bitcoin saw a significant 24% increase from its September low, altcoins like BSV, LINK, SOL, and AAVE have also displayed robust growth, each rising by approximately 30% in just the past week.
As this evolving bullish sentiment takes hold, the question arises: are these signals that the entire market will continue its upward trajectory, or is this merely a relief rally preceding a final bear market downturn?
Bitcoin’s price had been a subject of debate, with the market seemingly at a crossroads between bullish and bearish scenarios until October 12. In our previous analysis, we explored these potential outcomes, with a slight inclination towards a bearish outlook.
However, contrary to expectations, BTC embarked on an upward trajectory starting from October 12, surging by 24% to its recent high of nearly $31,000.
Based on our primary assessment, which suggests that the price initiated a broader downtrend following its peak of $31,800 on July 14, we had foreseen a significant but corrective upward movement.
In our analysis titled “Bitcoin Blasts through $28,000 as October Kicks Off: Will BTC Reach $30,000?” published on October 2, we had outlined these possibilities, indicating that a recovery to the $30,000 range was possible, followed by the commencement of a larger downward phase.
We initially projected a price target of around $30,250 to mark the conclusion of the upward ABC correction, ideally aiming for the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
However, today it exceeded that target, reaching a high of $30,990. But does this mean that the bearish scenario is now disproved?
Reviewing the current chart, it’s evident that we remain within the projected boundaries. Furthermore, today’s upward movement could potentially represent the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, with the April 14 high serving as the left shoulder and the July 14 high as the head.
However, this scenario, although not completely ruled out, has started to appear less probable. Given today’s decisive price increase and the absence of significant signs of resistance or substantial seller pressure, our primary expectation leans towards further upward movement, potentially resulting in a new yearly high.
The market’s resilience and its intent to sustain the upward trajectory are evident when examining major altcoins such as LINK, SOL, AAVE, and BSV.
LINK’s price deserves special mention as it has at last broken free from the horizontal range it had maintained for 528 days since May 2022. This breakout witnessed a 50% surge from October 20, rising from $7.20 to its peak of $11 today.
With these developments, there is now an expectation of further price gains, potentially even reaching $20, which could signal the commencement of a bullish cycle, setting the stage for a multi-year uptrend that could lead to new all-time highs.
The same trend can be observed with BSV, as we discussed in greater detail on Thursday, October 19. It successfully achieved a lasting breakout above $40 and reached $58 on October 21, marking an impressive 80% increase from its low of $32 on October 11.
On October 21, it not only exceeded its previous high from July 1 but also broke through significant horizontal resistance. The momentum behind this move suggests the potential initiation of a significant uptrend.
AAVE, too, achieved a notable breakout by surpassing its descending trendline, which represented the resistance level of the descending triangle it had been in since mid-August 2022. Starting from its low of $62 on October 19, it surged by 38.5%, reaching $86 at today’s peak.
Having completed this significant breakout and approaching its previous high from February, it seems poised to target new yearly highs, with the potential to reach $110 by the year’s end.
SOL reached its previous high, nearly hitting $32 today, signifying a 34% increase from its low on October 19. This is part of a trend continuation that began after a bounce from the ascending support on September 11, during which the price established its third higher low at $17.50.
The return of bullish sentiment seems resolute, as double-digit gains are evident across the market. It appears that altcoins have only just initiated their broader uptrends.
Bitcoin has undoubtedly paved the way, but its upward potential appears constrained, possibly even imperiled by an impending downturn. Bitcoin’s dominance continues to increase, presently standing at 52%, but it seems that this uptrend, which began on December 1, is approaching its end.
In the near future, we may witness a shift of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins, as Bitcoin’s price takes a breather while altcoins gain more momentum. However, whether this signifies the onset of a bull market or merely a temporary respite as the holiday season approaches remains unclear.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.