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Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Plunge to $23,000 But Bulls Eye $28,233 for Market Turnaround

Published October 12, 2023 2:30 PM
Nikola Lazic
Published October 12, 2023 2:30 PM

Key Takeaways

  • Bears believe Bitcoin will fall to $23,000, while bulls see potential for a bullish scenario.
  • While both perspectives hold validity, one appears more likely.
  • Current market indicators and patterns suggest a prevailing bearish sentiment.

The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, resulting in varying market predictions. Strategist Benjamin Cowen anticipates a potential Bitcoin drop to approximately $23,000, while crypto analyst Ali Martinez presents a more optimistic perspective, highlighting a key threshold of $28,233 for a bullish resurgence.

With the crypto community on the edge of their seats, the question remains: Whose prediction will align with Bitcoin’s future path?

Bitcoin’s Potential Drop to $23,000

In a recent YouTube video , crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen takes a bearish view on digital assets, predicting possible downward trends for Bitcoin (BTC). He envisions a potential 8% or greater decline in Bitcoin’s current value, which could subsequently impact and negatively affect altcoins.

At key resistance
BTC price reached a key resistance

Cowen suggests that a drop in Bitcoin’s price below the recent lows, approximately around $25,000, could spell substantial challenges for the altcoin market. He goes on to speculate that Bitcoin’s potential decline might extend to around $23,000, drawing from patterns observed in 2019.

Bitcoin’s Rise Above $28,233

Conversely, Bitcoin enthusiast Ali Martinez presents a more upbeat outlook regarding the ongoing crypto market dynamics in his recent X post. Despite Bitcoin’s recent 4.2% decline in value, Martinez emphasizes a significant indicator known as the Bitcoin Warm Supply Realized Price, which could signal the beginning of a bullish upturn.

This indicator computes the average price paid by market participants for digital assets based on the supply volume. It identifies a critical threshold at $28,233, signifying that for Bitcoin to kickstart a sustained bullish trend, it must break through and maintain a position above this level.

Martinez’s analysis indicates that surpassing this pivotal threshold may result in a substantial price surge, providing optimism for investors in the face of the prevailing bearish market sentiment.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin’s price has experienced a roller-coaster ride. It plummeted to a bear market low of $15,460 on November 21 last year, only to rebound to a yearly peak of $31,800 on July 24. This upward movement, marked by a five-wave pattern, suggested the end of the bullish phase, followed by an expected decline.

Larger descending move expected
A larger descending move is expected

On July 24, our forecast anticipated this decline, targeting the $26,000 range, in accordance with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Bitcoin’s subsequent trajectory has closely aligned with our predictions, and the recent upswing from September 11 could be indicative of the pattern’s second wave.

Two Bearish Scenarios in Play

There are two main bearish scenarios in play. One suggests a drop to $22,000 followed by a substantial uptrend, while the other paints a more pessimistic picture with a potential decline ranging from $11,000 to $15,300. Both scenarios converge until the third wave, with potential variations if Bitcoin crosses the $30,000 threshold.

Point of validation
Point of validation

Upon close examination of the hourly chart, compelling evidence suggests that the rally from September 11 has likely concluded. Notably, the price dipped below its previous high, which aligns with the context of an ABC pattern where Wave C roughly matches Wave A.

For the upward trend to persist, Bitcoin must successfully breach the $28,300 level. If achieved, the $30,000 region becomes a plausible target. However, any setbacks at this juncture may indicate a waning upward momentum.


After a comprehensive analysis, our outlook leans towards a more bearish sentiment. The patterns, indicators, and historical data all advocate for a cautious approach in the current market climate. While market’s inherent volatility remains a constant factor, our analysis hints at a potential downturn looming in the near future.

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