On September 11, Bitcoin’s price briefly dropped below $25,000, revisiting its June 15 low prior to its recent climb to the yearly high of $31,800. This retracement of 100% signaled a potential shift towards seller control.
However, since September 11, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, initially surging by nearly 10% and subsequently reaching $28,340 in today’s trading. The price has entered a parabolic trajectory once more since September 25, marking a 9.3% increase. The question now is whether this upward momentum can be sustained, potentially pushing Bitcoin to the $30,000 mark.
On November 21 of the previous year, Bitcoin hit its lowest point during the bear market at $15,460. From this level, a significant uptrend emerged and continued until July 14 when it reached its annual peak of $31,800. This uptrend followed a five-wave pattern, signifying its impulsive nature but also signaling the conclusion of this particular bullish run.
As anticipated at that time, a downturn became likely following the peak.
In our July 24 price analysis for Bitcoin, we have projected a descending move with its first wave coming back to the $26,000 area and its second wave making a corrective recovery to $30,000.
“If this scenario is in play, then the price of Bitcoin is headed toward the next significant support zone, which would be at around $26,000 or where the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level is.”
Since our initial projection in July, the price chart has adhered to this trajectory, with the price movements aligning with our expectations. There hasn’t been any compelling reason to invalidate this projection.
The recent upward movement, commencing on September 11, is likely the second wave of this pattern, characterized as a corrective phase, and may retest the $30,000 zone, which is currently acting as resistance.
From a broader perspective, two scenarios emerge, both indicating a downturn from the $30,000 area. In the first scenario, these two moves constitute waves A and B, implying that with another wave C it may reach the $22,000 zone. Following this, a significant uptrend could propel Bitcoin to new yearly highs.
In the second scenario, these two moves represent waves 1 and 2 within a larger five-wave decline that could lead the price into a new bear market low. This low might range from as low as $11,000 to as high as $15,300.
It’s essential to note that both of these scenarios share common ground up to a certain point (the third wave). However, they will be invalidated if the price surpasses the $30,000 area. Such a breakthrough would suggest that the November 21 uptrend has not yet concluded, and we might witness another high exceeding the one observed on July 14.
Taking a closer look at the hourly chart and analyzing the wave structure, it becomes evident that there is additional potential for movement. Whether this represents a corrective wave C of a smaller-scale ABC to the upside or constitutes wave 3 within the next five-wave impulse, the target remains consistent, ideally aiming for the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Utilizing this analysis tool, we derive a target around $30,250. However, it’s important to note that this area is more of a zone than an exact level. In the context of an ABC pattern, Wave C may conclude at a length equivalent to that of Wave A, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $28,664.
Given the potential for further upward movement, the price must initially surpass $28,664. Should it accomplish this, the likelihood of reaching the $30,000 zone becomes quite substantial. Conversely, if it faces rejection at this level, resulting in a sharp decline, it may serve as an early indicator of its inability to sustain the upward trajectory.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.