Key Takeaways
AVAX is currently positioned at a critical inflection point, consolidating within a descending wedge pattern on the daily chart.
A potential breakout could lead to a continuation of the larger Elliott Wave structure, suggesting further upside.
Meanwhile, the hourly chart hints at the early stages of a five-wave impulse formation, which, if confirmed, could drive AVAX toward key Fibonacci targets.
On the daily chart, AVAX has been in a corrective phase, likely completing what appears to be Wave (4) of a larger impulsive structure within a descending triangle.
The price has found support around around $33, which aligns with the lower boundary of a descending wedge formation. This suggests a possible reversal zone as it corresponds with the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
The prior price action shows that AVAX completed a full five-wave cycle to a peak of around $65 before undergoing a significant ABC correction. The downward retracement appears to have formed a bullish wedge, hinting at an upcoming move higher.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains neutral, suggesting that momentum has yet to fully shift bullish.
However, a breakout from the descending wedge would likely trigger an upward wave (5), confirming the continuation of the larger bullish trend.
If AVAX breaks above the wedge resistance near $41, the next Fibonacci levels at $47 (0.618 retracement) and $55 (0.786 retracement) will become the primary targets.
AVAX appears to be forming a five-wave impulsive structure from its recent low near $33 on Jan 27. The descending wedge pattern suggests that Wave (4) has likely completed, setting the stage for a breakout.
The first confirmation of this move will be a decisive push above $36-$37, marking the start of Wave (i). A brief pullback (Wave ii) may follow, likely finding support near the previous resistance before Wave (iii) propels the price toward $42-$44, the next major resistance zone.
Wave (iii) is expected to be the strongest, fueled by increasing momentum. A minor correction (Wave iv) should hold above $40, leading to the final Wave (v), targeting the $53-$55 range, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Sustained bullish momentum could extend gains beyond $55, potentially reaching $65.
If AVAX fails to hold above $34, the bullish outlook weakens. A break below $29 would invalidate the impulsive structure, signaling potential downside continuation.
However, as long as price action respects key support zones, the probability of a rally toward $50+ remains strong, completing the final leg of this bullish cycle.