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Dogecoin (DOGE) Declines 12% After Losing Key Support Level — Reaches New Yearly Low

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • Elliott Wave 4 correction nears its termination point.
  • RSI momentum weakens, confirming corrective pressure.
  • Key Fibonacci levels highlight critical support and resistance zones.

Dogecoin (DOGE) was recovering from Dec. 20 when it fell to $0.26 on a larger wick. Since then, it formed an ascending channel to a high of $0.43 on Jan. 18.

A downturn was seen, and today, a breakout below its ascending support invalidated the previously outlined bullish projection. 

DOGE Price Analysis 

Dogecoin’s 4-hour chart illustrates the completion of Wave 3 at approximately $0.48, followed by a prolonged corrective Wave 4, which has unfolded as a complex ABC pattern.

The Wave C leg has tested key Fibonacci retracement zones, including the 0.382 level at $0.36, which is now acting as resistance. Current price action has broken below an ascending channel as it has fallen over 12% since yesterday.

This suggests a bearish continuation toward lower retracement levels. We could see lower levels than $0.26 on Dec. 20, meaning that instead of assumed wave 4 completion, we now see its third sub-wave. 

DOGE price analysis
DOGEUSD ascending support breakout | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on this time frame confirms weakening momentum, hovering near 40, which aligns with the ongoing correction.

Notably, the Fibonacci retracements of 0.5 ($0.285) and 0.618 ($0.238) are critical zones that may attract buyers, particularly the latter, which aligns with historical price reactions.

Despite the bearish undertone, the overall structure remains constructive, as Wave 4 corrections typically precede a final impulsive Wave 5.

The upside potential exists if the price stabilizes above $0.285, invalidating further downside.

DOGE Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart highlights the fine-grained details of the ongoing Wave C structure within Wave 4.

The breakdown from a smaller ascending channel, coupled with the impulsive Wave (iii), suggests further declines toward 0.786 at $0.285) and 1 at $0.244 Fibonacci extensions, where Wave (v) could terminate with its higher degree wave C. 

DOGE price prediction
DOGEUSD more downside expected | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

A temporary bounce within Wave (iv) may retest $0.317 (0.618 retracement of Wave (iii)), which also serves as immediate resistance.

However, this rally could remain capped if RSI momentum fails to recover significantly. Wave (v) is likely to complete near $0.24, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, providing an opportunity for bullish reversals as part of the larger Wave 5.

The RSI on this time frame indicates oversold conditions, signaling the possibility of a short-term consolidation or retracement before the final drop.

Confirmation of bullish momentum requires a decisive break above $0.36 (0.382 retracement on the 4-hour chart).

Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate Resistance: $0.317 (0.618 retracement of Wave (iii)).
  • Secondary Resistance: $0.36 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement of Wave 3-4).
  • Key Support: $0.285 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement of Wave 3-4).
  • Critical Support: $0.238 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement of Wave 3-4).
  • Wave (v) Target: $0.24 (0.618 Fib retracement and 1 Fib extension)
  • Invalidation Zone: Below $0.24, signaling potential broader bearish trends.

Dogecoin remains within a critical correction phase, but its wave structure and Fibonacci targets provide clear zones of interest for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.
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