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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Holds Key Horizontal Support After 10% Drop

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • Critical horizontal support is near $388.
  • RSI divergence indicates potential weakness.
  • Wave Y targets deep retracement levels.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been in a descending triangle since its Dec. 6 peak of $645 and is currently testing the horizontal zone.

Two outcomes are ahead depending on the interaction result, but which one is more likely? 

BCH Price Analysis 

The daily chart of BCH reflects a completed five-wave impulsive structure (wave 5) peaking near $716, followed by an ABC corrective wave leading to a pronounced support zone around $300 (slightly below 0.618 Fibonacci retracement).

This region has proven critical as both a consolidation and reactionary pivot in past price movements.

Since then, another rise has been seen, but the price made a lower high of $645 on Dec. 6 before another downturn to the $400 horizontal zone, where it currently tests for support. 

BCH price analysis
BCHUSD at pivotal point | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is neutral but hints at bearish divergence, indicating weakening upward momentum.

Failing to hold the $388 zone could accelerate selling pressure toward deeper retracement levels.

However, a decisive break above $472 (0.382 Fibonacci level) would invalidate this bearish outlook and point to a recovery wave.

The current Elliott Wave count suggests two possible outcomes. BCH may be forming a complex WXY corrective pattern, while on the other hand, it could have already ended its correction as an ABC to $300. 

According to the bearish count, wave W ended with a local bottom of around $300, while Wave X retraced sharply to $645 before reversing. Wave Y is developing, targeting lower support levels near $322 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) and $215 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).

BCH Price Prediction

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, BCH’s price action reveals a descending triangle consistent with a correction since the Dec. 6 high.

Either the correction ended as an ABCDE on today’s support interaction or has a breakdown potential. 

The sub-wave count indicates the continuation of wave(iii) from the recent interaction with the descending resistance on a high of $510, as the wave (iv) of the higher degree count.

A final leg down as subwave (v) is anticipated, targeting values below $300. 

BCH price prediction
BCHUSD two outcomes ahead | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

Wave Y’s projected bottom aligns with Fibonacci clusters near $291–$270, indicating target support. If BCH fails to hold this level, deeper bearish extensions to $241 (2.618) or $215 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement from the daily chart) become viable.

Conversely, a breakout above $432 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement) could signal the start of a corrective rally, with bullish targets at $472 or $511.

RSI on the 1-hour chart is approaching oversold levels, which may trigger a temporary bounce.

However, continued RSI divergence from price suggests that the recovery may remain capped below immediate resistance.

Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate Resistance: $432 (0.236 Fibonacci level).
  • Key Support: $388 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement on 1-hour).
  • Critical Support: $322 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement on daily).
  • Bearish Target for Wave Y: $291–$270 (Fibonacci extensions).
  • Invalidation Zone: Above $472, signaling a bullish reversal.

BCH declined 10% from yesterday, falling to its key horizontal support zone. Two outcomes are ahead, with a breakdown or a bounce determining the next phase. 

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.
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