Key Takeaways
- A blockchain analyst has discovered a problem with the way Polymarket trade volume is calculated.
- Major dashboards have been double-counting transactions.
- DeFiLlama, BlockWorks, and Allium Labs have committed to fixing the issue.
Polymarket’s complex on-chain footprint has created challenges for blockchain analysts.
According to one, almost every major data platform has been double-counting on-chain prediction market trading volume.
Polymarket’s “Confusing” Data
In an X thread on Monday, Dec. 8, a blockchain analyst known as ‘storm’ highlighted some of the challenges posed by Polymarket.
“Polymarket’s data has been notoriously confusing for crypto data analysts. [It] has too many layers of interacting complexity to untangle using just a block explorer,” the post explained.
The core issue identified by Storm is that Polymarket’s smart contracts emit two separate OrderFilled events for each trade—one from the perspective of the maker (the party placing the initial order) and one from the perspective of the taker (the party filling that order).
“Most dashboards compute volume by summing these events,” leading them to inflate trade volume by 100%, they warned.
DefiLlama and BlockWorks Updating Dashboards
Upon discovering the double-count issue, storm informed the operators of data platforms that track Polymarket volume.
So far, DeFiLlama, BlockWorks, and Allium Labs have committed to fixing the problem, they said.
Miscalculations over trading volume cast Polymarket’s 2025 breakout in a different light.
Much of the industry’s reporting, this publication included, relies on dashboard data to assess platform adoption.
But if Polymarket volumes were being inflated all along, that adoption was never as pronounced as it appeared.
Top Trending Crypto Articles
James Morales is CCN’s blockchain and crypto policy reporter. He has been working in the news media since 2020, writing about topics such as payments, banking and financial technology. These days, he likes to explore the latest blockchain innovations and the evolving landscape of global crypto regulation.
With an educational background in social anthropology and media studies, James uses his platform as a journalist to explore how new technologies work, why they matter and how they might shape our future.
