Key Takeaways
- A Dimers survey found 52% of NBA fans believed they could outperform a computer model, compared with 40% of non-fans.
- Despite that confidence gap, the groups’ average predictions differed by no more than two percentage points across three Opening Night games.
- Team loyalty produced bigger differences in forecasts.
NBA fans were more confident than non-fans that they could beat a computer prediction model.
When asked to assess the same Opening Night games, however, both groups arrived at almost identical answers.
That gap between perceived expertise and actual predictions is the standout finding from a Dimers survey of 1,000 US adults, published Oct. 23.
Confidence Changes More Than the Picks
Dimers surveyed 500 NBA fans and 500 non-fans before Opening Night, asking participants to divide 100 virtual points between the two teams in each matchup.
Respondents also rated their confidence that their betting predictions would outperform a computer model.
According to the Dimers report, 52% of fans believed they could out-predict a model, compared with 40% of non-fans.
But their assessments of the games barely differed.
Fans assigned the Knicks an average 56% chance against the 76ers, compared with 54% among non-fans.
Both groups favored New York and San Antonio. Both teams lost.
“The fans at least lost with conviction,” Dimers wrote.
Non-fans were also more willing to leave a contest evenly balanced, as 57% assigned at least one game a 50/50 probability, compared with 49% of fans.
Team Loyalty Created a Bigger Divide
Supporting a particular team appeared to matter more to predictions than the difference between fans and non-fans.
Knicks supporters assigned New York a 67% chance of winning, compared with 55% among neutral fans.
Spurs supporters similarly gave San Antonio a 65% chance, against 54% among neutral fans.
Three-quarters picked the Spurs, who lost 116–104, according to Dimers.
However, the largest loyalty gap was among supporters of the team that won.
Thunder fans assigned Oklahoma City a 66% chance, 20 percentage points above the 46% assessment from neutral fans.
Lakers fans, meanwhile, recorded the highest average confidence score among the fan bases Dimers ranked, at 61.7 out of 100 — even though their team was not playing.
Michael Jordan Has Also Questioned Betting Predictions
The tension between sporting knowledge and computers extends beyond betting fans.
As CCN reported on Oct. 1, Michael Jordan discussed how athletes approach decision-making differently from betting companies during an appearance alongside executives from DraftKings and Sportradar.
“The way you look at it and the way I look at it as an athlete is totally different,” Jordan said during the Sept. 29 discussion.
His argument focused on how players react to situations as they unfold, while betting businesses analyze patterns to anticipate outcomes.
While some fans believe they can outperform computer models, others are already using technology to inform their decisions.
Research published by the Fantasy Sports & Gaming Association in July found that 25% of fantasy players and sports bettors used AI tools, generally in a supporting role.
Among those who avoided AI, 43% cited a preference for making their own decisions.
Meanwhile, 85% said AI-generated content should be clearly labeled.
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
