Tom Lee’s 2026 Bitcoin ATH Call Meets Fundstrat’s Bearish Reality Check: What Actually Happened
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Key Takeaways
Tom Lee argues Bitcoin is “extremely oversold” and has historically preceded rebounds.
Lee’s Bitcoin predictions have begun to fuel skepticism across the crypto community.
Bitcoin did reach new all-time highs in October 2025, validating Lee’s broader bullish thesis — but the magnitude and timing of his forecasts often prove premature.
Bitcoin (BTC) is “extremely oversold” and historically positioned for a rebound, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee, who made the comments on Thursday.
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Lee was responding to a post on X by Julien Bittel, Head of macro research at GMI, who shared a chart tracking Bitcoin’s average price performance following periods when its relative strength index (RSI) dropped below 30.
Such readings are widely interpreted by traders as signaling oversold conditions.
“Good stuff,” Lee wrote in response. “Bitcoin [is] extremely oversold. Bounces follow.”
— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) December 17, 2025
Bittel argued that Bitcoin’s recent price behavior closely resembles past recoveries after oversold RSI signals, suggesting the pattern may still hold if the broader bull market remains intact.
The analysis also challenged the long-standing belief in Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle.
According to Bittel, the cycle was never primarily driven by Bitcoin halvings themselves, but rather by public debt refinancing dynamics.
“In our view, the four-year cycle is now officially broken,” Bittel said.
He added that under current liquidity and business cycle conditions, the balance of probabilities suggests the crypto market cycle could extend into 2026.
Lee’s Aggressive Price Targets
Lee’s endorsement of the oversold thesis comes as he continues to advocate for significantly higher Bitcoin prices.
Earlier reporting from Bloomberg cited Lee as expecting Bitcoin to rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 by late January.
More recently, Lee expanded that outlook, saying onstage at Binance Blockchain Week that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within months.
Taken together, his 2025 record shows that Tom Lee’s Bitcoin calls were more directionally correct than numerically accurate.
Lee consistently framed drawdowns with a bullish stance during periods of elevated volatility and negative sentiment.
That positioning was ultimately validated in a narrow sense when Bitcoin has all-time highs in October 2025.
However, where Lee’s forecasts fell short was magnitude and timing.
CCN’s education team found that his early-March view that Bitcoin could do “better than $150,000” by year-end proved too optimistic.
That target was later escalated, with Lee suggesting in September that Bitcoin could “easily” reach $200,000 under the right conditions. Neither scenario materialized.
Lee’s predictions have so far been premature at best.
Community Pushback Grows
Despite Lee’s confidence, reactions from crypto market participants on social media have become increasingly critical.
“So why is your company buying shitcoins instead of the ‘oversold’ Bitcoin?” one user wrote in response to Lee’s comments.
Another commented, “People are sick of crypto losses—no one believes predictions anymore. Sign of a bottom? Yes, that was said 20% ago.”
Others were more dismissive.
“Yeah yeah. You are a broken record,” one commenter wrote.
Bitcoin’s Bearish Price Outlook
Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum after failing to sustain earlier rallies.
At the time of reporting, it was trading at $88,195, a significant decline from its October highs.
Valdrin Tahiri, an analyst at CCN, said Bitcoin’s technical structure remains bearish.
According to Tahiri, Bitcoin has entered the fifth and final wave of a corrective decline after breaking down from an ascending parallel channel.
“If the count is accurate, the Bitcoin price will fall to the $70,000–$72,000 range to complete its correction,” Tahiri said, adding that a significant bounce could follow once it is complete.
However, as always, please note that market conditions remain volatile, and price projections are subject to change.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
