Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin ETFs add approximately $47,600 to BTC’s price.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs command over $150 billion in combined net assets.
- Bitcoin could lose over 30% of its value in the short term if BTC ETFs disappeared.
Since their launch, U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been the biggest driver of growth for BTC over the past year.
Now, having tallied $151.6 billion in total net assets, the question is, what would happen to BTC if they all sold out? And more importantly, what value do BTC ETFs contribute to the token’s price?
Bitcoin’s Value
For reference, we’ll be using BTC’s price of $119,000 for the calculations.
To begin with, Bitcoin has a supply of 21 million, 19.89 million of which are in circulation.
As of July 22, 2025, U.S. spot BTC ETFs command $151.6 billion in combined net assets, representing 6.52% of Bitcoin’s $2.35 trillion market cap.
By dividing $151.6 billion by $119,000, we find that BTC ETFs hold roughly 6.06% of the total supply, owning approximately 1.27 million BTC.
Historically, a 1% increase in liquid supply may cause a 5-10% drop in BTC’s price. Therefore, a 6% increase in supply implies a 30-60% price decline.
Applying this to BTC’s current price of $119,000, a sell-off could lower Bitcoin’s value to around $83,300, or as low as $47,600. That said, this decline would most likely be felt in the short term.
Ultimately, this suggests that BTC ETFs are adding a similar premium to BTC’s price, or $35,700 to $71,400 per BTC, with a midpoint of $47,600.
So What?
The major implication here is that BTC may never stoop below $50,000 ever again.
Of course, this depends on how dramatic the hypothetical sell-off would be, but it’s an interesting point of reference.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) owns a whopping 670,770 BTC worth roughly $72 billion, representing around 2.9% of BTC’s total supply.
Similarly, if Saylor decided to cash in the $28 billion in unrealized profits, BTC could slide by around 20% in value.
It’d be a short-term pain that would ultimately put a ton of freshly discounted BTC tokens back on the market. These will likely be picked up in no time by retail and institutional investors elsewhere.
Of course, regulatory shifts, geopolitics, and a myriad of macroeconomic factors will continue to influence BTC’s price. But, for now, Bitcoin ETFs are a cornerstone of BTC’s $119,000 valuation.
Eddie is a gaming and crypto writer at CCN. Covering the often weird and wonderful world of Web3 with an adoring, but skeptical eye.
Prior to CCN, Eddie has spent the past seven years working his way through the crypto, finance, and technology industry. He began with PR and journalism with Bitcoin PR Buzz and BitcoinNews.com, eventually working his way to become a copywriter with a dozen firms, including the likes of Polkadot before returning to journalism in 2023.
Having studied Radio production and journalism at University in the UK, Eddie spent a few years making podcasts and presenting on a local London radio station as he built up his writing chops.
A lifelong skateboarder, Eddie can often be found at the skatepark or touring the streets looking for something new to try. That, or kicking back playing JRPGs on his original PSP.
