Goldman Sachs and UBS Spark Wall Street’s Gold Rush With Bold New Price Predictions

Key Takeaways

• Goldman Sachs sees gold hitting $4,500 an ounce in 2025, citing rising global uncertainty.
• UBS has also raised its forecast to $3,500, expecting the rally to extend into 2026.
• Rate cut expectations, Trump-era fiscal risks, and strong central bank demand fuel the bullish momentum.

Gold is again stealing the spotlight as markets navigate economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tension.

Long seen as a barometer of financial anxiety, the precious metal isn’t just holding its ground—it’s breaking out.

With major institutions racing to raise their forecasts, gold is emerging as more than a safe haven; it’s looking like a top-performing asset in a world searching for stability.

Goldman Sachs Turns Strongly Bullish

Goldman Sachs has revised its gold outlook for the third time this year, setting a new year-end price target of $4,500 per ounce—the most bullish projection yet.

The bank cited growing global unease and gold’s sharp rebound after the April 2 market sell-off, which was triggered by President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff announcement.

The news briefly dragged gold prices down by 5% as investors pulled back across risk markets. But the metal quickly recovered, surging to an all-time high of $3,245.

This latest upgrade represents a 12% increase from Goldman’s previous target of $3,300. Earlier this year, the bank had already lifted its outlook twice —in February and again in March—on the back of strong central bank buying and resilient ETF flows.

Despite short-term volatility and profit-taking, long-term investors are holding steady. According to Goldman, physical demand in Eastern markets has remained firm, especially during price dips, and institutional interest continues to build.

Gold is up more than 24% year-to-date, outperforming most major asset classes and reaffirming its role as a portfolio anchor during times of economic stress.

UBS Also Raises the Bar

UBS followed suit on Friday, raising its gold forecast to $3,500 for 2025 and predicting the rally could stretch into 2026.

Strategist Joni Teves pointed to heightened tariff risk, slowing global growth, stubborn inflation, and geopolitical instability as key drivers.

Tever emphasized gold’s growing strategic role in portfolios, particularly as investors hedge against policy missteps and currency volatility.

UBS noted that gold futures and ETF holdings are now approaching levels last seen during the COVID-19 crisis—signaling broad conviction among both retail and institutional investors.

The firm anticipates that gold demand will come from diverse sectors, including the official industry, asset managers, macro funds, private wealth, and retail investors.

Mine growth will remain limited on the supply side, and scrap supply may be constrained. Teves also cautioned that limited supply and increased demand could lead to liquidity issues, potentially amplifying price volatility.

Wall Street Expects Higher Ounce Prices

Wall Street expects gold prices to keep climbing into 2025, though the pace may slow compared to last year’s 27% surge.

Analysts point to steady central bank demand, potential Fed rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical tensions as key drivers. These projections largely leave out any tariff-related effects. A strong U.S. dollar, however, could cap further gains.

Lower interest rates and political uncertainty—especially around U.S. fiscal policy under President-elect Trump—are also expected to support gold. Société Générale noted that Trump’s election win created a “favorable environment” for the broader metals space.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck recommends holding both gold and Bitcoin (BTC) as hedges against inflation and fiscal risk. He sees central bank buying and ongoing de-dollarization as long-term tailwinds for gold, while Bitcoin’s post-halving rally could push it toward $150,000 to $170,000.

Despite gold’s 24% gain in 2025, gold mining stocks have lagged slightly at 21%—suggesting potential room for a catch-up. VanEck warned, however, that rapid policy shifts and global instability could inject fresh volatility into both assets.