The invasion of Israel into Lebanon on Oct. 1, 2024, reignites the pressing question: How do key assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold react in the aftermath of major geopolitical events?
Gold has always been the go-to asset for investors during times of global uncertainty. It has instinctively served as a trusted store of value.
As Bitcoin—often referred to as “digital gold”—becomes more integrated into mainstream finance, it prompts questions about its ability to stand alongside gold in crises.
The analysis will trace Bitcoin’s and gold’s performance from 2016 to January 2025, evaluating whether Bitcoin can match gold’s long-standing resilience.
A review of historical events from 2016 to January 2025 has identified 38 significant geopolitical events that appear to warrant detailed analysis. The price performance of Bitcoin and gold was examined at intervals of 7, 30, 90, and 180 days following each event, based on the event dates.
It’s important to note that Bitcoin trades 24/7, whereas gold does not. Gold markets typically follow set trading hours across different regions, meaning they do not operate continuously over the weekend. As a result, in 52 instances, we had to use the next available trading day for gold prices.
If an event occurred on a Saturday or Sunday, the gold price from the following Monday and Bitcoin’s price from the same date were used to ensure a fair comparison.
The price data for Bitcoin was sourced from Google Finance, while the gold data was obtained from the World Gold Council. The detailed price performance of both assets, along with the corresponding geopolitical events, can be found in the table below.
Date | Event | BTC 7D | Gold 7D | BTC 30D | Gold 30D | BTC 90D | Gold 90D | BTC 180D | Gold 180d |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 23, 2016 | Brexit Referendum | 11.42% | 4.64% | 10.71% | 4.04% | 0.79% | 5.07% | 33.29% | -10.81% |
June 5, 2017 | Qatar Diplomatic Crisis | 7.96% | -1.06% | -0.92% | -4.66% | 69.03% | 4.15% | 342.31% | -0.51% |
Jan. 22, 2018 | First Trump Tariffs | 8.94% | 0.84% | -0.54% | -0.16% | -13.49% | -0.62% | -25.34% | -8.08% |
March 1, 2018 | Second Trump Tariffs | -14.69% | 1.01% | -36.63% | 1.23% | -32.60% | -0.54% | -35.33% | -7.30% |
March 4, 2018 | Sergei and Yulia Skripal Poisoning | -22.13% | -0.09% | -35.96% | 0.99% | -35.25% | -1.89% | -39.39% | -8.93% |
May 8, 2018 | U.S. Withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal | -7.74% | -0.89% | -16.30% | -0.72% | -24.52% | -7.42% | -30.02% | -5.69% |
May 31, 2018 | Third Trump Tariffs | 5.05% | -0.62% | -9.53% | -4.41% | -3.86% | -7.75% | -47.49% | -6.45% |
Oct. 2, 2018 | Jamal Khashoggi Murder | 1.74% | -1.59% | -2.05% | 2.20% | -43.06% | 6.17% | -36.29% | 7.37% |
Feb. 26, 2019 | India-Pakistan Air Strikes | 1.37% | -3.11% | 5.88% | -2.26% | 130.63% | -3.21% | 171.96% | 13.49% |
Aug. 2, 2019 | U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty | 12.68% | 3.88% | -1.54% | 5.84% | -12.94% | 4.80% | -11.72% | 9.13% |
Sept. 14, 2019 | Saudi Oil Field Assault | -5.59% | 1.66% | -18.43% | -0.44% | -29.25% | -2.04% | -52.69% | 4.91% |
Oct. 9, 2019 | Turkey Advances into Northern Syria | -6.88% | -1.47% | 2.01% | -2.86% | -5.09% | 4.02% | -14.59% | 9.36% |
Dec. 27, 2019 | COVID-19 First Outbreak | 1.10% | 2.46% | 22.63% | 4.54% | -6.87% | 8.16% | 28.11% | 16.84% |
Jan. 3, 2020 | Assassination of Qasem Soleimani | 11.65% | 0.31% | 26.64% | 1.68% | -7.21% | 4.39% | 25.92% | 14.35% |
Jan. 30, 2020 | WHO Declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern | 2.67% | -0.95% | -6.12% | 1.36% | -7.61% | 7.93% | 15.06% | 22.98% |
Feb. 20, 2020 | Pre-COVID-19 Pandemic Market Selloff | -8.38% | 2.04% | -32.39% | -5.78% | -1.06% | 7.99% | 24.41% | 24.07% |
March 8, 2020 | Russia–Saudi Arabia Oil Price War | -36.59% | -11.05% | -9.28% | -1.39% | 23.24% | 1.07% | 31.91% | 15.17% |
March 11, 2020 | WHO Declares COVID-19 Pandemic | -31.95% | -9.41% | -13.48% | 1.63% | 23.08% | 3.61% | 30.62% | 16.61% |
Aug. 20, 2020 | Poisoning of Alexei Navalny | -4.54% | -0.17% | -12.19% | -0.92% | 49.91% | -2.65% | 314.29% | -6.90% |
Sept. 27, 2020 | Second Nagorno-Karabakh War | 0.91% | 2.43% | 27.58% | 2.22% | 152.77% | 0.57% | 414.61% | -7.11% |
Feb. 1, 2021 | Brexit | 38.44% | -1.49% | 50.36% | -8.13% | 70.45% | -5.12% | 16.82% | -2.76% |
March 23, 2021 | Suez Canal Obstruction | 8.05% | -2.45% | -4.84% | 3.57% | -41.76% | 2.83% | -21.07% | 1.83% |
Aug. 15, 2021 | Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan | 7.78% | 0.88% | 2.41% | 0.36% | 38.32% | 4.12% | -7.77% | 2.51% |
Aug. 30, 2021 | USA Afghanistan Withdrawal | 12.11% | 1.28% | -11.61% | -3.41% | 23.07% | -0.70% | -8.09% | 6.19% |
Feb. 24, 2022 | Russia-Ukraine Armed Conflict | 10.75% | -0.35% | 22.84% | 0.04% | -23.05% | -4.60% | -43.87% | -9.80% |
July 8, 2022 | Shinzo Abe Assassination | -3.62% | -1.84% | 10.22% | 2.64% | -7.62% | -1.38% | -22.03% | 6.85% |
Aug. 2, 2022 | Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan | 0.70% | 0.87% | -12.46% | -4.80% | -10.87% | -7.91% | -0.69% | 8.11% |
Aug. 4, 2022 | Chinese military exercises around Taiwan | 5.88% | 0.76% | -12.47% | -4.05% | -10.88% | -7.49% | 2.29% | 7.89% |
Sept. 26, 2022 | Nord Stream pipelines sabotage | 2.10% | 1.52% | 8.06% | 1.42% | -12.02% | 9.57% | 41.14% | 18.43% |
Oct. 4, 2022 | NK’s ICBM Triggers Shelter Warnings in Japan | -6.30% | -2.92% | -0.65% | -5.02% | -18.04% | 5.77% | 36.71% | 15.65% |
March 8, 2023 | U.S. Regional Banking Crisis | 12.21% | 5.90% | 28.65% | 10.22% | 25.48% | 7.76% | 18.98% | 6.66% |
March 19, 2023 | Credit Suisse Collapse | -2.35% | -1.17% | 9.36% | 1.53% | -3.42% | -0.92% | -4.25% | -2.11% |
April 8, 2023 | Chinese military exercises around Taiwan | -0.70% | -0.32% | -6.63% | -0.05% | 2.39% | -3.98% | -7.55% | -9.11% |
Oct. 7, 2023 | Hamas attack on Israel | 3.35% | 3.93% | 27.05% | 7.54% | 60.15% | 11.43% | 148.34% | 24.28% |
April 14, 2024 | Iran-Israel Armed Conflict | 5.37% | -0.39% | -1.59% | 0.45% | -1.29% | 3.29% | -4.45% | 12.33% |
July 31, 2024 | Yen Carry Trade Unwinding | -13.95% | -1.07% | -10.66% | 3.59% | 7.23% | 13.14% | — | — |
Sept. 17, 2024 | Lebanon Pager Explosions | 6.62% | 2.38% | 16.41% | 3.57% | 80.07% | 2.99% | — | — |
Dec. 8, 2024 | The End of Assad’s Era | 2.45% | 0.55% | -2.86% | -0.34% | — | — | — | — |
As seen in Figure 3 below, Bitcoin had a slight edge over gold in 52.63% of the geopolitical events we analyzed over a 7-day period. But gold outperformed Bitcoin in 47.37% of the cases. This minimal difference suggests that both assets had nearly identical performance.
When the analysis was extended to 30 days, gold outperformed 55.26% of the instances. Therefore, it slightly outpaces Bitcoin in four more events. Though the results are close to even, this shows a slight shift towards gold.
The disparity becomes more evident over a 90-day span. Generally, gold outperforms Bitcoin in 62.16% of the events, marking the widest gap in the analysis.
Following major geopolitical events, gold and Bitcoin tend to behave largely similarly over short and long periods. However, over the medium term, gold tends to have more consistent outperformance than Bitcoin.
This suggests that gold provides greater stability after the initial market turbulence caused by geopolitical events.
Still, outperforming more often doesn’t automatically result in higher returns. What ultimately matters is the size of the gains.
The table below details the average performance of Bitcoin and gold.
BTC 7D | Gold 7D | BTC 30D | Gold 30D | BTC 90D | Gold 90D | BTC 180D | Gold 180D |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.47% | -0.13% | 0.31% | 0.30% | 10.94% | 1.64% | 36.69% | 5.13% |
Their performance is very similar for the 7-day and 30-day periods. But at 90 days, Bitcoin’s average return jumps to 10.94%, and over 180 days, it reaches 36.69%.
Gold, however, only reaches 1.64% over 90 days and 5.13% over 180 days. Therefore, while gold might outperform Bitcoin more frequently, Bitcoin’s average returns are much higher. This is particularly evident in the medium and long term.