Pavel Durov’s Telegram Nets $335M Windfall — Can It Ride a Crypto Bull to a $30B IPO by 2026?

Key Takeaways

• Telegram cryptocurrency holdings increased to $1.3 billion in the first half of 2024.
• Crypto payments fees now account for around two-thirds of its income.
• CEO Pavel Durov has said he expects the company to become profitable in 2025 ahead of a planned IPO.

Telegram’s cryptocurrency holdings have tripled since 2023, increasing to $1.3 billion in the first half of 2024, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, Nov. 26.

The company’s crypto windfall, alongside soaring revenues, could help propel Telegram to the $30 billion valuation founder Pavel Durov set his sights on for an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026.

Telegram Financials

The Times’ report  follows months of speculation about Telegram’s financial health, which has been scrutinized since the firm posted losses of over $200 million last year.

In the first half of 2024, the messaging platform generated $525 million in revenue, a 190% year-over-year increase. Of this, $353 million came from cryptocurrency sales.

Although Telegram formally spun off The Open Network (TON) following a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) probe in 2019, TON remains a central part of its payment proposition, driving significant revenues for the platform.

A large portion of this comes from Telegram Wallet, an integrated TON wallet that lets users buy and exchange the cryptocurrency directly.

According to the Times, about $225 million of Telegram’s revenue was generated from a single deal that cemented TON as the exclusive payment currency for buying ads on the platform until October.

A Buffer Against Losses

Surging crypto revenues and Telegram’s sizable TON reserves could help the firm repay its debts and stay afloat amid ongoing operating losses.

An investigation by Fortune found  that Telegram saw a net loss of $259 million in 2023. Assuming its expenditure hasn’t dramatically changed, that means Telegram is likely to post another loss in 2024, albeit a smaller one.

Even if the crypto market continues to rise, Telegram’s path to profitability remains uncertain. However, CEO Pavel Durov told the Financial Times in March that he expects  to hit profitability next year, with eyes on an IPO after that.

Riding the Crypto Cycle

As countless crypto ventures have discovered, relying on future price rises for revenue growth is likely to end in tears.

Other factors that will determine whether Telegram can break even in 2025 include the ongoing draw of TON-based payments and how much of that value the platform can succeed in capturing.

Incidentally, cryptocurrency market cycles don’t just impact the underlying value of any given asset. They also affect usage and adoption.

If Bitcoin remains true to form and turns bearish in late 2025, will Telegram users continue to pay in TON? Or will they turn to other payment channels that are more immune to volatility?

For Telegram to continue to grow its revenues, crypto alone may not be enough. Instead, it will need to double down on fiat fees, non-payment services, and advertising, which currently account for around a third of its income.