Key Takeaways
After reaching a lower high of around $7 compared to its all-time high, the price of TON reverted to its demand zone.
Support has been validated with a reversal, now looking highly likely.
However, it is still constrained within a descending structure whose breakout is awaited to confirm the bullish outlook.
Toncoin’s price action reflects a corrective structure marked by a descending channel since its peak of $8.30 in June last year.
The daily chart highlights the price stabilizing within a green demand zone, between $4.50 and $5.10, corresponding to the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
This area was critical support for the downtrend and may catalyze a reversal.
We saw spikes below it in September and November, but the price quickly bounced back. At its last uptrend until Dec. 4, TON reached a lower high of $7.17 before it fell to this zone again.
On Jan 20, it retested its lower boundary of $4.71, validating buyers interested in this area. A descending trendline continues suppressing upward movement, with the price currently testing this dynamic resistance at $5.17.
A breakout above the trendline could confirm the beginning of a new impulsive wave.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe has rebounded from oversold territory (~30), showing signs of renewed bullish momentum.
However, sustained buying interest is required to maintain this trajectory. The next significant resistance lies at $6.00 (0.382 Fibonacci level) and $6.91 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
The 1-hour chart supports the hypothesis of a potential reversal. A completed five-wave impulsive structure (i-v) within the hourly timeframe suggests the conclusion of wave (v) in the C correction.
The price has since attempted to reclaim support, with minor wave structures indicating an early-stage impulsive recovery.
The current breakout attempt above the descending trendline, aligned with wave (ii), hints at wave (iii) development within a higher-degree impulsive wave count.
If confirmed, the following Fibonacci extension levels suggest immediate targets near $6.00 (0.382 retracement) and $6.91 (0.236 retracement). An extended rally could see prices revisiting $7.83 (previous peak).
RSI momentum on the hourly chart indicates improving conditions, but resistance at the descending trendline must be cleared decisively.
Failing to break above this resistance could lead to a retest of the $5.10-$4.50 demand zone, where buyers will likely re-enter.
Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
In conclusion, Toncoin exhibits signs of a reversal from its corrective phase. A decisive breakout above the descending trendline would validate the bullish outlook, with Fibonacci retracement levels offering clear targets for the next potential impulse.
Conversely, a rejection at these levels may prolong consolidation or resume bearish pressure.