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Toncoin (TON) Revisits Crucial $5 Zone, Setting Stage for Potential Rebound

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • TON has completed a corrective phase within a larger descending channel.
  • The price at the demand zone hints at a potential reversal.
  • Fibonacci retracement and Elliott Wave counts suggest a bullish setup if immediate resistance levels are breached.

After reaching a lower high of around $7 compared to its all-time high, the price of TON reverted to its demand zone.

Support has been validated with a reversal, now looking highly likely.

However, it is still constrained within a descending structure whose breakout is awaited to confirm the bullish outlook.

TON Price Analysis 

Toncoin’s price action reflects a corrective structure marked by a descending channel since its peak of $8.30 in June last year.

The daily chart highlights the price stabilizing within a green demand zone, between $4.50 and $5.10, corresponding to the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.

This area was critical support for the downtrend and may catalyze a reversal.

TON price analysis
TONUSD at horizontal support | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

We saw spikes below it in September and November, but the price quickly bounced back. At its last uptrend until Dec. 4, TON reached a lower high of $7.17 before it fell to this zone again.

On Jan 20, it retested its lower boundary of $4.71, validating buyers interested in this area. A descending trendline continues suppressing upward movement, with the price currently testing this dynamic resistance at $5.17.

A breakout above the trendline could confirm the beginning of a new impulsive wave.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe has rebounded from oversold territory (~30), showing signs of renewed bullish momentum.

However, sustained buying interest is required to maintain this trajectory. The next significant resistance lies at $6.00 (0.382 Fibonacci level) and $6.91 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).

TON Price Prediction 

The 1-hour chart supports the hypothesis of a potential reversal. A completed five-wave impulsive structure (i-v) within the hourly timeframe suggests the conclusion of wave (v) in the C correction.

The price has since attempted to reclaim support, with minor wave structures indicating an early-stage impulsive recovery.

TON price prediction
TONUSD breakout expected | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

The current breakout attempt above the descending trendline, aligned with wave (ii), hints at wave (iii) development within a higher-degree impulsive wave count.

If confirmed, the following Fibonacci extension levels suggest immediate targets near $6.00 (0.382 retracement) and $6.91 (0.236 retracement). An extended rally could see prices revisiting $7.83 (previous peak).

RSI momentum on the hourly chart indicates improving conditions, but resistance at the descending trendline must be cleared decisively.

Failing to break above this resistance could lead to a retest of the $5.10-$4.50 demand zone, where buyers will likely re-enter.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance Levels:

  • Immediate: $6.00 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement)
  • Secondary: $6.91 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement)
  • Major: $7.83 (prior high)

Support Levels:

  • Immediate: $5.10 (local support within demand zone)
  • Key: $4.50 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement and lower boundary of demand zone)
  • Invalidation Zone: Below $4.50, signaling potential for deeper correction.

In conclusion, Toncoin exhibits signs of a reversal from its corrective phase. A decisive breakout above the descending trendline would validate the bullish outlook, with Fibonacci retracement levels offering clear targets for the next potential impulse.

Conversely, a rejection at these levels may prolong consolidation or resume bearish pressure.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.
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