The price of Bitcoin has been on a slight decline since mid-July but is actually been in a horizontal range from mid-April when looking at a broader picture. This period of low volatility some might call apathy has caused many guessing, have we seen the end of the uptrend?
Even though the price decrease was seen, overall it is still in an uptrend. But this lack of interest may be making some investors nervous. That isn’t the case with short-term holders. As per Glassnode video report , short-term holders aren’t interested in selling their Bitcoin.
Since the one cohort we could expect to see some immediate action is being inactive, does that mean Bitcoin will maintain trading above $28,000?
Sell-side Risk Ration for Short-term holders is a metric that describes spot market value (realized profit + realized loss) divided by the realized cap, or in other words, how much the value changed versus the size of the asset, in this case, Bitcoin among short-term holders (less than five months).
A high value indicates an increase in value change – usually seen in profit-taking or capitulation events. Low values mean that the value change is small and usually happens right before a large move.
As this metric fell to its all-time low, it means that short-term holders are sitting around the breakeven price – the price they bought Bitcoin, and aren’t willing to sell. This can be interpreted as a sign that they are offering the price its needed support around the current levels of $28,400.
Short-term holders are considered an active cohort, more sensitive to smaller price changes. The chart above shows that they are not considering selling their Bitcoin just yet, even though the previous uptrend has been extinguished.
The conclusion here can be drawn that they are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the price to exit the range on either side to take measures – sell at a loss or sell at a profit.
As stated at the beginning of the article, Bitcoin’s price reached a similar high level in July as it did in April – $31,000. We have seen a pullback, but according to the chart analysis, there are reasons to believe that it will stay above $28,000.
First, we see that the price currently interacts with the intersection between two support – the horizontal one and the ascending one. In particular, the ascending one is the more reliable one, dating from January 1, and was respected on two more occasions.
Second, the RSI on the daily chart shows that Bitcoin is close to the oversold zone, currently sitting at 34.5%. In comparison, it was on the same levels as on June 15 when the previous rise started.
Third, the Elliott Wave count points out that the price hasn’t finished its five-wave impulse and that another higher high is to be expected. It is still unclear where this high can end, but the next significant resistance zone is at $37,500, where our first expected stopping point
Even though the price of Bitcoin has been struggling to keep up its bullish momentum, short-term holders aren’t selling just yet. Chart analysis shows that the price is likely to hold above $28,000 which is its current significant support point.
If the price breaks the level and short-term holders start selling at a loss, the price could go into a higher degree downtrend and spark an even large descending move.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.